The United States has launched its third night of airstrikes against Iranian territory this week and President Trump indicated he is ready to approve an attack on a fortified mountain site intelligence analysts suspect could be a site for undeclared nuclear activity. The escalation, coupled with a new demand by the Americans to impose fees on ships that travel across the Strait of Hormuz for safe passage, has threatened to tear apart the fragile ceasefire and shook energy markets in Singapore to Rotterdam.

The president told a conservative radio host that American forces would "hit them very hard" during the next two nights and Tehran's ability to retaliate was "a non-issue. Trump was specific about the Pickaxe Mountain complex when he asked if it was a "possible" target for a "nice big fat shot" near the front door, in a reference to a tunnel network dug close to the Natanz enrichment plant that was not a target of the strikes last year. Earlier this month, satellite photos revealed new work and the movement of vehicles at the facility, and the Institute for Science and International Security has said the activity violates the agreement between Washington and Tehran, which was signed weeks ago to de-escalate hostilities. International inspectors have never been allowed inside.

That memo is now defunct. Trump, on Monday, called it a “test” Iranian leaders never meant to follow, and Tehran made a similar claim against Washington, arguing the deal acknowledged Iran's control over the Hormuz port. US Central Command said that its forces attacked Iranian coastal defenses, missile and drone sites and naval assets in six locations including Bushehr, Bandar Abbas and Chah Bahar overnight. Iran responded by hitting Bahrain for the third time since midnight, with its Revolutionary Guard claiming to have destroyed a Patriot radar system, a US Navy tracking radar and a satellite communications hub. Jordan interceded four incoming Iranian missiles, Jordan said. In Omani waters, two Emirati oil tankers have been bombed by cruise missiles, resulting in the death of one Indian crew member and seven other Indian nationals, including several who were seriously injured, along with two Ukrainians. The Guard to blame the vessels for ignoring warnings and entering a mined corridor in Iran.

What has changed this time is the economics of the war, compared to the February war, which was the first one. Nearly 10 percent higher the day before, making it the highest price in a month, Brent crude rose as high as 3.8 percent Tuesday to $85.92 a barrel. With oil levels only recently back to normal after the ceasefire last month, that is about 19 percent higher than the pre-war price. Governments have been tapping into emergency stocks to lessen the blow, but analysts at Sparta Commodities said those are mostly gone and markets are now severely exposed for a repeat of the March/April price jumps.

The situation even worse in the shipping sector. Prior to the war, between 130 and 178 ships daily were transiting the Strait, with about one-fifth of the world's oil and some 40 percent of China's crude imports flowing through the water in the months leading up to the war. Cars are down over 90%! A war-risk premium of 5 percent of the tanker's value – a cost that can run to more than $4 million on a $375,000 premium for a single transit – has been quoted at the peak of the fighting. It has widened to the point where, according to a recent analysis by the World Economic Forum, Washington has even implemented a reinsurance backstop of its own, lending $40 billion to the Development Finance Corporation to ensure vessels continue to sail when the private market is not willing to pay for the risk.

Toward that void came Trump's toll plan. He posted a statement to the Truth social website stating that Hormuz will be open, “with or without Iran” and that the value of all cargo passing through will be shared with them at 20 percent, which will benefit Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Never to be outdone for a single minute, Iran's foreign minister replied it was Tehran's “always” that “has been the guardian” of the waterway, and it would provide its own, lower price. The proposal also flies in the face of what the administration has been saying for weeks, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance publicly decried the imposition of any tolls on an international waterway, and it goes against the international maritime law, experts from the US Naval War College and a spokesperson for the International Maritime Organization said. Gulf governments, some of whom have been privately skeptical about the way Washington initiated this war without seeking their advice or deciding how they would be expected to react should Iran block the strait, are said to be "very displeased" about having to foot the bill for protection they did not seek and which has thus far failed to prevent attacks on their own territory.

None of this is taking place in isolation from politics at home. Trump, pressed by whether Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been undercut by the terms of the memorandum, said the two leaders should remain aligned, but warned Iranian protesters to remain off the streets, for fear of a violent response. But the thread that ties the nuclear standoff, the toll scheme and the insurance crisis together is much simpler than the volume of daily statements indicates: A chokepoint that's responsible for a fifth of the world's oil is becoming a negotiating counterweight in a war whose ultimate outcome no one controlling it appears capable of describing, and this bill in dollars, in barrels, and in human lives lost onboard the tankers with no skin in the game is hitting everyone but the shooters.