Pete Hegseth arrives in Israel today for the first time since he assumed command of the Pentagon, and there are plenty of reasons to consider it an opportune visit. He comes straight from Ankara where President Donald Trump on Tuesday sat with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and said he would "certainly consider" selling F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey, which Washington has expelled from the program six years ago. That one sentence has more to throw the Israel Defense Forces' establishment into confusion than any other word or gesture from this week's NATO summit.

CNN and Axios report that Iran will be the focus of much of the discussion at the defense secretary's meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, as will Turkey. There's no coincidence in that. The US military has conducted another series of air raids on Iranian targets hours before Hegseth's plane was attacked by projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran's military has threatened a "crushing response. Both Kuwait and Bahrain reported overnight explosions, while Iranian state media reported blasts in the port province of Bushehr, which is home to the country's only civilian nuclear plant, and near the Kharg Island terminal, which serves some nine-tenths of Iran's oil exports. But the ceasefire that ended the larger war appears to be wearing thin by the day and Hegseth's visit is in part designed to calm Israeli nerves on that front while he attempts to wash away the stain from the other.

The F-35 question however, has the longer memory. Turkey joined the Joint Strike Fighter program in the late 1990s and before it was pulled, was producing nearly a thousand parts for the fighter – from the landing gear forgings to composite skins. Ankara's decision to acquire the Russian S-400 air defense system was a deal that Washington pulled out of in 2019, citing Congress concerns that it would compromise the stealth profile of the F-35. That was an unpaid for decision. Pentagon officials at the time estimated it would cost about $500 to $600 million just to move Turkish production facilities to American supplier, and more recent estimates placed the cost of the expulsion to Turkey at about $9 billion for the life of the program, and additional per-aircraft costs would bring the total cost by 2030 into the billions of dollars. The decision to turn around now is no mere switch that can simply be flipped; it would involve untangling the years of requalified vendors, alternative suppliers and legal restrictions that were incorporated into the US sanctions law.

Trump's opening covers just that. He told reporters Washington would remove sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act that have prevented Turkey from receiving F-35 deliveries and Hegseth's team was on the case to see if Ankara had done enough to become eligible. Turkish President Erdogan meanwhile claimed he had already been guaranteed 5 jets and said he would be looking to Trump to deliver it, while suggesting that they could discuss engines for Turkey's home-grown Kaan fighter separately. Trump's inclination to approve the sale predated his meeting with Erdogan in Ankara, with Vice President JD Vance having intimated the review for weeks, and Reuters and the New York Times reporting, based on sources close to the White House, that Trump was already considering approving the sale.

Netanyahu has been vocal in his opposition. In a Fox News interview made two days ago, he called Turkey a "country with a leader" who calls for Israel's destruction, and predicted that if the United States were to arm Ankara with the most advanced fighter aircraft in the world, it would cause Israel to lose its qualitative military advantage in the region, as guaranteed by the US law. He told Trump directly in a call he raised this issue," he said. The unease extends even to Greece, which fears an F-35 armed Turkish air force in the region would raise tensions in the already tense airspace of the Aegean. None of it has seemed to shift Trump a bit. He described Turkey as "much more loyal" than some allies that he expected to be "more loyal", referring to the allies of the United States who were hesitant to join the recent military operation.

The economics only add to the stakes. At $13.1 billion, the F-35 was the most expensive weapons system in the Pentagon's 2016 budget request, and Lockheed Martin pegs the standard F-35A variant's average cost at around $82.5 million per aircraft for the latest production runs. Meanwhile, NATO is investing in other nearby areas, with chief Mark Rutte announcing a $40 billion five-year investment to anti-drone defense at this week's summit, and member states expected to commit $80 billion to Ukraine's assistance in 2026. Turkey is seeking to increase that spending more than merely reclaim its previous F-35 slot, claiming it is an integral component of the drone industry and has the Kaan program, which has been cited as an example of a UAS that would meet the needs of the U.S. Defense Department.

There's also a home-grown wrinkle that's playing against a yes. This month, 10 Congress members, both Republicans and Democrats, wrote to the White House to maintain the sanctions and the F-35 ban, arguing Erdogan's rhetoric against US allies and Ankara's defense cooperation with Moscow. The Wall Street Journal editorial board has issued a more pointed concern: If the U.S. sells the F-35 to a country that still uses Russian air-defense systems, it could open the door to Moscow and Beijing learning about the most critical aspects of the jet.

This isn't going to change anything for Hegseth in Israel. It is a warning sign, however, of the intertwining of Washington's Turkey calculus and its Israel relationship as both nations also work to keep a fragile, increasingly-torn ceasefire with Iran.