Two nights of silence over Iranian skies have failed to ease the nerves in Tehran, Washington and Jerusalem, however, and on Sunday Iran's military made it clear how tenuous the night of silence is at best. If it is the US that starts its bombings again, the conflict will not be limited to Iranian soil, says Iran's army spokesman Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia to state TV. He told Israel it was seeking to pull Washington into its battle, saying any further bombing would expand the ground of the conflict geographically to American bases in the Gulf states and Jordan.

It is a typical refrain from Tehran, but timing is important. The warning comes two days before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets with President Donald Trump in the Oval Office, where Israeli officials have indicated that the Israeli bombing campaign, which aimed at nearly two weeks of intelligence-gathering strikes, will focus on new intelligence about Iran's efforts to rebuild what the bombs destroyed. The Jewish-language reports indicate that Netanyahu's policy-makers are planning to inform Trump about the speedy construction work under Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, including on the site of Pickaxe Mountain near Natanz, which is located deep underground. Analysts have already been able to see by satellite that Iranian forces have been rushing to repair facilities they claimed they had destroyed in recent weeks.

It's a state of fatigue and brinksmanship in the larger context. After 13 days of nightly strikes and counterstrikes, last week saw Brent crude cross the psychologically important $100-a-barrel threshold for the first time since the spring, reflecting traders' expectations that the Strait of Hormuz, the key shipping route through which about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and gas passes, could remain effectively closed for business indefinitely. Now that fear is subsided. Brent fell more than seven percent Monday morning in London to $89.85 a barrel, and the American oil benchmark West Texas intermediate declined by more than five percent to $84.83. It's the type of swing that gives Trump some breathing room just a hundred days before midterm elections in which his party is battling to retain both chambers of Congress, but commodity strategists are warning not to make too much of it. There is no such thing as a pause and a return to two-way shipping traffic in Hormuz anyway, said Helima Croft of RBC Capital Markets, referring to the present flare-up between Houthi troops and Saudi Arabia that is threatening to block the shipping traffic through the Red Sea.

That second front is exactly what Akraminia referred to when he said that the war has already expanded twice, to Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the mouth of the Red Sea. Iranian forces blocked six vessels trying to go through Hormuz in the last 24 hours after giving a warning, state television reported, as Tehran's top negotiators separately maintained that they have made “substantial progress” in discussions with Oman on the future of management of the waterway, in the wake of the incident.State television reported that Iranian forces blocked six vessels that tried to pass through the Hormuz waterway after warning them over the last 24 hours only, while Iran's top negotiators had separately said they have made “substantial” progress in their talks with Oman on the future management of the waterway in the wake of the incident. Several rounds of talks so far took place on the weekend in Tehran between the two countries' deputy foreign ministers, which were described as helpful, and technical and political consultations are continuing, said foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei. The tension goes back to a June agreement in which Muscat proposed that ships could sail through the waters under its control, to which Tehran was outraged, sparking a series of ship seizures and warning shots to come.

The reality of the Trump administration behind the scenes is more conservative than the picture in public. The Pentagon had prepared plans for a fourteenth night of strikes, but Trump reportedly decided against approving the strikes after an Omani delegation arrived in Tehran to discuss a new plan to reopen the strait, leaving more room for diplomacy to do its job. The president and his advisers are also growing concerned about the potential consequences of escalation, including the toll it will take on American munitions inventories, the possibility of losing the support of key Gulf allies who remain vital for U.S. interests and the impact on global energy markets and the economy, the New York Times reported independently. The stockpile has been brought up directly with Trump in a meeting at the White House on Friday, according to Vice President JD Vance and Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and a Defense Department official told The Associated Press operations are on hold as of Saturday.

But nothing has deterred Trump from maintaining all the options prominently in front of him. He has suggested an expanded list of targets, including Iran's energy infrastructure and bridges, dispatched ground troops to take up possession of the Kharg Island oil terminal, and launched a direct attack on the underground Pickaxe Mountain facility, while claiming that he has yet to reach a final decision Friday. A markets and governments on the sidelines will see that ambiguity for a reason: It's not peace, and the region's exporters, shippers and central banks know that. More than any words uttered from a podium in Tehran, what happens on Tuesday in the Oval Office will determine the outcome of this.