The markets noticed something changed in the Oval Office this past week, before most newsrooms. Donald Trump didn't mean a skirmish on the battlefield when he told reporters that the U.S. would hit that area "pretty soon" and "there's not a thing they can do about it. He was referring to a mountain, located in the heart of Iran, which has been the most significant piece of real estate in the Middle East without anyone realizing it.

Located next to the site of Natanz, about 140 miles south of Tehran, Iranians refer to it as Kuh-e Kolang Gaz La. The Americans have dubbed it Pickaxe Mountain, referring to its pickaxe shape and the fact that Iranian engineers have been boring a tunnel under it for years. The site has never been hit by the American bunker-busters as in Operation Midnight Hammer in 2025 when Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan were flattened. Satellite data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies shows that construction has accelerated since the bombing ceased elsewhere around the site, on the western, eastern and southern side of the perimeter.

The difference about the mountain is the depth. The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation estimated years ago that the plant is 260 to 328 feet deep, and excavation has continued since then. The Institute for Science and International Security now estimates the depth at about 328 feet under a ridge that is more than 5,000 feet high. This bomb was actually designed for hardened targets, such as this, and the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator launched by the United States has the ability to penetrate approximately 200 feet of earth prior to exploding. There is no public confidence that even two of the bombs stacked on top of each other would be enough to bring down Pickaxe Mountain, and military planners have reportedly discussed mounting two bombs in succession to go into the mountain deeper. It's all about the range of American firepower versus Iranian depth, and that's the reason why Trump's bravery is more suited to weapons engineers than a television viewer.

Things got heated up after the Wall Street Journal reported in October last year, quoting Israeli intelligence, that Iran had transported thousands of centrifuges to the mountain last year, as well as enriched uranium. Trump has seemingly hedged his bets on the issue, telling reporters he wasn't sure whether or not it had occurred, but saying it wouldn't matter, because Tehran would reveal its position if it wanted to get to its buried stockpile. We follow the material, that's where the action is," he said, a line that sounds reassuring until you remember the same IAEA that he's quoting has never been let in at Pickaxe Mountain. No one can be sure what it is inside except those in the inner circle of Iran's security forces. In some ways, that uncertainty is worse than the certainty, because it leaves Washington in doubt about what it is shooting at and Tehran in an arms race they can't prove they will be able to win.

That's a nuclear math which remains stark under all this. Iran's stockpile of uranium enriched to 60 percent was under 441 kilograms, close to the 90 percent purity level for making a bomb, and enough for about ten bombs if it is fully enriched, according to the last full accounting by the IAEA. It would still take months to build a working device and probably reduce it to the size of a ballistic missile, which would be difficult to conceal from Israeli or U.S. eyes. The late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in opening hours of this war who had issued a religious decree against nuclear weapons. His son, and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei, has issued no comment on the issue, and that's interpreted as a statement in and of itself in Washington and Jerusalem.

None of this is in isolation, and the economic impact is likely to outpace the military narrative. Brent crude rose to $92 a barrel this week and briefly above $94 following Iranian forces' strike on a tanker in the strait, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was near $85. Shipping intelligence firm Kpler, which is based in Norway, said it saw a second day of reduced traffic in the shipping lane through Hormuz, a strait that in peacetime handles almost a fifth of the world's oil. Polling in the United States have surpassed $4 a gallon, a figure which could appear in no Pentagon briefing long before it appears in any poll. In early months of the war, when the strait seemed to have ground to a standstill, Brent prices surged above $100 for the first time since 2022, with one seasoned energy forecaster saying the price could climb to $150 to $200 if the chokepoint is once again closed for a prolonged period. Saudi Arabia has been diverting oil via a pipeline across the Red Sea to mitigate the effects, but this is now in danger, as the Houthis in Yemen have imposed their own maritime embargo against the kingdom.

Washington is footing the bill in dollars and barrels. Past the $37.5 billion already spent on the campaign against Iran, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told the Senate this week, is a figure he's asking lawmakers to provide more, not less, funding for. That will come with a second, subtly smoldering proposal also on Trump's agenda: Congress should approve a civilian nuclear energy deal with Saudi Arabia that is believed not to have the same safeguards Washington once demanded an offer that may be met with a counteroffensive from Israeli officials. Combine these two threads and a broader pattern is revealed. But the battle for one mountain in Iran is impacting nuclear talks, energy markets and alliance politics across the whole region all at once and a strike on Pickaxe Mountain successful or otherwise would be just the first act of what is to follow.