At this point, six months into a conflict that Washington promised would be over in weeks, it remains unclear whether the United States and Iran are even talking to each other. President Donald Trump, as part of his "Truth Social" account, condemned Tehran's leadership to “unbelievably duplicitous” this past Monday, claiming that they had reached out to him for a meeting “some would say beg” before denying that any meeting was coming this week. The Iranian foreign ministry spokesman, Esmaeil Baqaei, had told reporters in Tehran hours before that his government was not engaging in “any negotiations” with the United States “at the moment” and that its “only current talks were with Oman” on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

The contradiction is no simple scheduling matter. It is located on the center of the sole issue that is on the minds of global energy markets right now Will the narrow strait that transports about a fifth of the world's daily oil supply reopen, or will the region experience another strike wave? A broader diplomatic deal around reopening the strait is still possible this quarter as there are many signs of growing military, diplomatic and economic tension, according to a Fitch Solutions research unit report quoted Monday by CNBC. Speaking of which, that's a hedge from analysts who's job it is to price risk for shippers and insurers to tell; nobody on the outside believes a word either side says anymore.

Trump, meanwhile, is playing his game. Later Monday, he told reporters at the White House that talks with Iran were underway, and he could envision the strait being "fully reopened" as soon as Tuesday, when negotiations would take a second step he called the "denuclearization" of Iran, which "will take a little while. He said that Tehran would have its "last chance to sign a good document," and that he would like "to give them every last chance before decapitation. It is words that have been formed to sound magnanimous yet menacing at the same time, and from the time the strikes started in late February he has been using this style to lead this conflict.

It's important to note that pattern, that one because it has been repeated so near and so fast, Trump revealed Monday that he had a plan in place for what he called the "biggest attack since World War II" against Iran, to be launched Sunday, before shelving it at the urging of Gulf allies Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates including, he said, a direct appeal from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman as well as at the request of unnamed Iranian officials. The escalation is at least the third or fourth to be announced and then withdrawn without a trace since February. Critics both within and beyond the administration increasingly see it as more of an admission that American air power has not been sufficient to bring Tehran to the table within the six months since he began targeting the Islamic Republic with several rounds of strikes, and initiated a potential war that he described as being of “weeks” duration.

That economic backdrop makes the stakes of that miscalculation real. Trading data tracked through the war shows that Brent crude, which was hovering around $71 a barrel in late March just before the war broke, surged above $106 in late March when the Strait of Hormuz blockade cut off traffic through the choking strait of water. After signing a truce and memorandum of understanding in June, it has slipped back again to pre-war figures, but it has again surged since the truce ended in July Brent closed the month with more than a 24 percent increase. It was trading in the mid-80s by the beginning of this week, with Brent trading around $83 to $85 a barrel and WTI just below $80 as traders considered the return of the strikes and the reopening of the Hormuz oil straits. In normal conditions, about 13 million barrels of crude pass through the strait every day, almost one-fifth of the world's total consumption, so any rumour of progress or setback triggers price changes within hours.

The war-risk insurance for tankers that pass through the strait has also had the same roller coaster effect: pre-crisis rates were about 0.125 percent of the value of the vessel's hull per transit, rising to as high as 5 percent during the height of the war in March. Those premiums and the rerouting costs for ships opting to make the longer Cape of Good Hope route rather than sailing through the strait and through the Red Sea, directly into shipping rates and ultimately, consumer prices, far from the Gulf. Trump himself hinted at this Monday, expressing his “frustration” on how much money big oil firms are making “on the backs of the very oil that we are creating scarcity for,” the very oil scarcity caused by his own blockade and Iran's counter-blockade.

What follows is probably more a product of the lesser-known parallel negotiations between Iran and Oman than of Trump's Truth Social posts, where Baqaei said over the weekend that Iran and Oman were "getting closer" to a deal on a shipping route that would accommodate both countries' security interests without officially reopening the strait to Iran's sworn enemies. It's a face-saving deal arranged by Muscat, or one that Washington insists on conducting itself that it can take credit for, which will determine if there is a reopened waterway on Tuesday or another round of threats, denials and market whiplash. However, for the past six months, it would have been unwise to take a gamble on clarity.