Hours after sitting through a dinner of NATO leaders in Ankara with President Donald Trump, the Pentagon announced Tuesday night that it had directed another salvo of strikes against Iranian territory, marking direct military action against the country by the U.S. military for the first time in years. The attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz a day ago was a series of strikes that Gulf states and the U.S. accused Tehran's Revolutionary Guard of orchestrating, which was the reason for the operation, Washington said.

Secretary General Mark Rutte of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) was forthright ahead of Wednesday's high-level meeting. He accuses the strikers of being "absolutely necessary," because a ceasefire becomes meaningless if either side continues to escalate it. His logic was simple: If the truce is on and one side is breaking it, the other side must retaliate or it's nothing. But Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was hardly far behind in an hour, saying that the American response was "appropriate" and Iran had been "reckless. The comments are significant in that they were from a summit whose official business was set to be on defense budgets and Ukraine, not a Middle East flare-up that's been dominating the narrative.

The bombings struck Iran's air defense batteries, command and control systems, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missiles systems and over 60 small boats of the Revolutionary Guard's navy. American troops were responding to a “clear and dangerous violation of the truce,” Tuesday's attacks on a Qatari-flagged liquefied natural gas carrier and a Saudi supertanker off the Iranian coast that damaged the ships but didn't attract a response from Tehran, Central Command said in its statement. Within 24 hours, a third ship was struck. Both Kuwait and Bahrain reported air raid sirens the next morning as they also fired at projectiles heading toward them, indicating that the battle is no longer solely Iranian versus American, but is also involving the smaller Gulf States in the middle.

Tehran rallied back in quick response and defiant manner. In the attacks, which took place overnight, one member of the Revolutionary Guard's navy was killed, according to Iranian state media, and military spokesman Brigadier Gen. Majid Fakhar-Dokhtr told reporters a “crushing response” would be taken to sites that allow for more American activity. Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf wrote on his Twitter account that “bullying” was over and that Iran would never surrender. The timing was also symbolic, coming as Iran's leaders were still holding days of funeral processions for the country's deceased supreme leader whose death at the start of the war has left Tehran mournful and perhaps in the midst of a power struggle for leadership.

Washington and its allies are employing the military option in tandem with an economic measure, revoking Iran's license to continue selling oil on international markets, one of the main terms Tehran agreed to under the memorandum it signed last month. A high-ranking American official told reporters the deal with Iran was always based on performance, that is, the benefits would only last as long as it continues to comply. The market was shocked into action. After hours trading saw Brent crude rise by more than five per cent to around seventy-six dollars, while American crude rose by a similar amount. The single-day swing is important as the Strait of Hormuz continues to transport nearly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil and a significant amount of global liquefied natural gas, with traders pricing in the gradual return of normal shipping levels through the waterway for much of the past two months. Now those hopes are being dispelled as the reality unfolds.

By any economic yardstick, the overall impact of the months of sporadic warfare was staggering. Independent estimates say the cost to American taxpayers is over one hundred billion dollars. The International Energy Agency said the disruption was the biggest supply shock in the history of the global oil market, while the World Bank's commodity outlook noted that instability could make it increasingly likely that the price of Brent crude would average above the $90 mark this year, potentially affecting everything from the price of fertilizer to that of airline tickets, as jet fuel costs in parts of Asia have risen sharply. Those most affected, such as several South Asian nations, are those most reliant on energy imports from the Gulf, and in countries most dependent on Gulf imports, some economists have predicted conditions resembling a recession may have become entrenched.

For the US, the timing of this latest escalation proved to be awkward, as it occurred in the very place the two sides met. Trump came to Ankara with some level of visible irritation at allies that weren't letting American troops use their bases or airspace during earlier stages of the Iran campaign, and has been openly wondering for months about the value of NATO to the United States. Spain's prime minister described the entire campaign as illegal and cruel and Italy was allowed to participate only on the non-combat side, while Germany remained only to the logistics side. Fresh strikes during a summit designed to demonstrate unity of the alliance instead highlighted differences between the sides as leaders in Europe worked throughout the day to prove they were spending more on their defenses than Trump would like.

In the meantime, the principle question in the minds of both the ceasefire and the summit is whether either side wants de-escalation or whether both are just playing their blink game. No illusions on that front, said Rutte's own answer, adding that Iran's nuclear ambitions and the reopening of Hormuz would be the dominant agenda of talks, which is a nod to a seemingly “settled” war running the show.It's that piece; the two pie charts above depict the swing of the Brent crude throughout the year's flashpoints and the proportion of the Strait of Hormuz's share of world oil trade. These are both original data visuals that are created from the reporting.