A terrible distillation of political upheaval, military brinksmanship and economic uncertainty hovers over the international order. The pressures faced by the government are not just in the troubled Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan, but from conflicts between Iran, Israel and the United States, the Russia – Ukraine War and political tensions in Europe.

The criticality of the current situation lies in the security developments and economic vulnerability. Gulf aviation incidents have the potential to affect insurance costs and travel. The political turmoil in Pakistan may impact the Chinese investments and regional trade. The confrontation with Iran could affect the energy supply to Asia and uncertainty about Russia and Ukraine can affect Europe's industrial competitiveness.

But it's important to differentiate between what's known and what's not. News of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa emergency, the arrest of political leaders, loss of life in Riyadh airport, an American–Russian energy ceasefire and a planned military strike on Iran must be independently verified. Such statements should not be accepted as fact simply because they are “commonly known.”

Political instability can prove to be an economic burden to the state especially in Pakistan. The KP is a highly precarious province located on the Afghan border with Islamabad facing numerous challenges from militant violence, political confrontation and disputes over KP provincial authority.

Any such action to impose unusual administrative measures within the province would create constitutional issues and the potential for further conflict between the federal government and opposition elements. Rumours about the arrest of provincial political officials should be treated with great care.

The bigger worry here is Pakistan's short financial resources in the face of prolonged instability. The country has sought IMF support on numerous occasions and sought external financing and rollover of debt. It is an extremely narrow tax base, has energy-sector liabilities, and relies heavily on imported energy; there is little scope for further disruption.

Rumours about Pakistan's imminent civil war continue to be speculative. However, continued tensions between political bodies, government and security forces could erode investor confidence, dissuade private investment and hinder the process of economic reforms.

The repercussions of the strategy are not confined to Pakistan. China has been investing substantially in China–Pakistan Economic Corridor related infrastructure and energy projects. The continuing insecurity raises operating expenses, makes financing projects more difficult and puts additional strain on the protection of Chinese personnel and assets.

In the meantime, events in the Gulf must be closely watched. Reports that the Houthis have attacked the Saudi capital of Riyadh airport, killing multiple people, must be taken with a pinch of salt until Saudi authorities, the airport authorities, or an independent and credible source confirms the fatality claims.

The region's threat to aviation and energy infrastructure is still significant, however. Saudi Arabia plays a vital role in petroleum markets and the Red Sea-Bab el Mandeb strait is an important sea route for commercial shipping between Asia and Europe.

If shipping companies feel a greater risk, the effects show up in freight prices, war-risk insurance and in longer voyages and slower deliveries. The extra costs are eventually passed on to manufacturers, retailers and consumers.

The implications for India are especially important. More than 4/5th of the crude oil needed is imported into the country. Rising prices of petroleum imports in the international markets can widen the import bills, pressure the rupee and increase the transportation expenses and production expenses.

Another potential source of economic instability is a confrontation between Iran, Israel and Washington. Rumours of Iranian military deployment and a potential coordinated American-Israeli operation need to be evaluated in the context of verified movements, statements and what can be seen going on militarily.

Throughout the entire range of military deployments, there is a spectrum of preparation, deterrence or defensive repositioning. Neither of these is by itself proof of a decision to go to war.

Part of the reason that Iran is important in terms of strategy is because of its geography. One of the world's most important oil-transit lanes is the Strait of Hormuz. Several large economies could be impacted by a serious disruption to crude exports, LNG deliveries and maritime insurance.

Washington has competing priorities, though, as it seeks to ensure the safety of regional partners, prevent Iranian military activity, and keep the sea waters free of navies and avoid an energy shock that would harm its own economy.

The situation with Russia and Ukraine poses another, but related, challenge. Reports of Washington's desire to change Ukraine's political leadership or the fact that it is pushing for a ceasefire with Moscow in its negotiations should be treated as suggestions and not as confirmed agreements.

If Russia and the United States entered into an energy deal one that they formally negotiated it would have repercussions on the battlefield and beyond. European gas markets, the implementation of sanctions, Russian revenues from exports and the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries may all be impacted.

Germany is particularly vulnerable to the price of industrial energy, and governments in Europe have to deal with the demands of defence spending, finances and political expectations. The unrest or demonstrations in Germany, Brussels and Italy are not necessarily a coordinated European crisis. Immediate causes of each development should be examined.

The importance of India's role in this volatile environment is growing. Appreciation of Indian traditions, cultures and customs, or democratic values, by American lawmakers can be a political gesture, but bilateral relations are grounded in economics, technology, defence and strategic interests.

India needs to maintain its option of dealing with Washington, Moscow, European capitals or the Gulf governments without giving up autonomy in decision-making. Achieving this objective requires energy security, resilient supply chains and domestic manufacturing capacity.

Rumours and allegations about foreign involvement in Delhi protests, including against Bangladeshi Islamist groups, also need to be substantiated with documented proof before attributing blame. It is proper to disagree on a piece of politics, but should there be foreign financing or organised interference, it is proper to investigate it legally.

Likewise, the reports of pneumonic plague cases in China must be taken with a grain of salt, and verified by public health surveillance. Economic impacts of rumours about infectious disease outbreaks can be significant before an outbreak is confirmed.

India's strategic independence should translate into strategic preparedness diversified energy sourcing, robust local industry, sound intelligence evaluation and financial capability. The nations that will make it through this period are the ones that manage to distinguish fact from fear, maintain economic flexibility and not let regional conflicts affect national priorities.