There is always a moment in a war that is unscripted and reveals the truth that everyone knew but was so afraid to say it aloud. It happened this week in the port city of Mokha, where Houthis who are loyal to Iran's allies walked in virtually unchecked, and within 24 hours, they occupied the final two islands which dominate the Bab el-Mandeb strait. A waterway that is responsible for a significant portion of the world's oil transported by sea is now effectively under the control of a militia that Washington has bombed for years and has never succeeded in driving away.

The loss of territory is not the only reason this is an awkward moment. But it was the finger pointing afterwards. Saudi field commanders were reportedly requesting air cover as the offensive progressed but it didn't arrive. When pressed, American officials said that it was for operational security and went on. Riyadh had reportedly deployed its forces on alert 3 weeks earlier, but still had not positioned the people who would be able to direct the combat aircraft when it came time. It is not the mark of a strong regional power. The profile of a kingdom which for a decade relied on American support to always be there and find out the fine print.

The Crown Prince made two calls in one day to the White House, seeking direct attacks on the Houthis' advancing columns, people familiar with the calls said. He was turned down. If he was looking for intelligence sharing, that's all he's receiving now, and that's a civilised term for Washington's own war with Iran, which is why it's not currently in a position to join Riyadh in fighting its own. That is a significant difference – for seventy years the whole security structure of the Gulf was built on the premise that Saudi and American interests were one and the same. They are definitely separating now and all capital cities in the region have heard.

Trump's own presentation has not been aiding anyone in calming down. He has told reporters and a convention crowd in Dallas that the Iran war will cease "immediately" after the Nov. 6 midterm elections, saying Tehran is merely waiting for the American election cycle to come to its end before it capitulates. It's an orderly tale for a home audience. And it's not nearly as comforting for allies who are taking in missiles the while and watching oil markets wobble on speculation. Diesel prices in the United States rose to a record of more than $6 a gallon this week.

Brent has been trading in the high nineties and one hundred and five dollars, with a near nine per cent increase in just one week, before being checked by a tip on the Hormuz diplomacy front which was not being closely monitored by anyone, before being rescued by fresh violence down the other chokepoint. Meanwhile, Saudi crude exports have dropped to about 5.6 million barrels a day, the lowest level in 9 years, just at a time when Saudi Arabia most needs the money and the buying power of a full-rate crude production.

In this void comes an alliance that can't be neatly pigeonholed just yet. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey inked a mutual defense agreement on the Saudi holy city of Mecca last month, with Pakistan's defense minister stating last week that if Houthis continue to attack Saudi territory, it could be activated. However, ask anyone in Islamabad, and the excitement quickly subsides.

Pakistan relies on energy which passes through these vulnerable waterways and its army chief has been on the phone with Iran's foreign minister for his restraint, instead of escalation; and Pakistan's parliament backed down a decade ago when it was asked to deploy troops in Yemen for the same reason it will not do it now. Turkey has spoken its opposition to the Houthis' success and taken no action. The agreement is on paper only. Whether it can withstand real war remains a question, and the hedging from both Ankara and Islamabad does indicate how little confidence is placed in the war being kept "contained.

Compare that paralysis with what took place in Bishkek this week, when Modi and Putin met for the second time in less than two weeks, and also in New Delhi on the fringes of the BRICS summit this week, with Chinese and Iranian leaders also present. Russian oil supplies are now about half of India's crude imports, a record percentage, and the two powers is aiming for a trade deal of 100 billion dollars by 2030, involving energy, defense, nuclear power and industrial technology.

The Gulf capitals are scrambling to determine who will pick up the phone as missiles begin to fly, but India has been quietly testing the proof of strategic autonomy this year buying cheap energy, hosting arms deals, and then telling Moscow very clearly that the Ukraine war must end. That is the kind of position Riyadh would give a lot to be in these days, rather than having to wait for Washington to feel the mood.

Hezbollah has also gone nowhere. Israeli operations along the Litani River are still in the process of being resumed, although not a major factor in the war and the fuse remains lit, but Netanyahu's government is not yet ready to let it burn for as long as it takes. Now add to this the report that a cell in northern Yemen was using commercial Artificial Intelligence tools to build missile guidance systems, and the result is a conflict that is no longer playing by the rules of a state-versus-state war but is playing by a new set of rules that are quite unpredictable.