Two weeks into the second round of the Iran war, the question in Washington is no longer whether the United States will hit Iran again but how hard, and how soon. President Trump has intimated to reporters he is considering a "massive attack", larger than anything since the conflict has restarted, and he's been blunt about Tehran not getting "enough pain yet. Top officials told of internal discussions that a decision may come in days and the tone from the White House this weekend has become more strident than ever. The simple fact is that chatter in security and political circles is coalescing around this weekend as when things could get suddenly even worse, and strikes that will be "symbolic" are not the type that will have lasting impact they are described as "decisive, big and with a chance of doing serious damage.

The threat is believable in the background. American warplanes have begun bombing Iran for 13 consecutive nights, the longest continuous bombing campaign since the ceasefire agreement broke down earlier this month, which reignited the war. These are to be targeted using a combination of fighter planes, drones and warships, Central Command says, including surveillance installations, missile storage, naval assets and logistics hubs. Washington also has its navy tighten the cordon around Iranian ports, the siege harming the economy just as much as the bombs. In the last week alone, almost 100 American servicemen have suffered injuries, primarily in strikes on jobs based in Jordan and the Gulf, while four U.S. soldiers were buried with dignity by the President himself.

The US will blow up a bridge or a power plant, Trump has announced, every time an Iranian armed attack is launched on an oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a new red line that explicitly includes Tehran's facilities. In response, Iran has threatened to retaliate against the US strikes by attacking "infrastructure and bridges across the region," according to state media. It's the threat of civilian targets not just military ones that has got security analysts most anxious heading into the weekend, as it suggests a broader and more turbulent stage of the conflict than a contained one.

State media cannot cover up the economic damage done to Iran anymore. The IMF estimates Iran's economy will shrink by about 6.1 percent this year, and inflation will hit just under 69 percent, figures rarely seen even in Tehran these days. Since the war started in February, almost two million jobs have been lost, and the rial has been in free fall for several months. The damage has been estimated independently in a variety of ways, but even the most conservative estimates are staggering: the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates that the total damage to be roughly 144 billion dollars, ranging from 50 to 300 billion dollars. Iran has its own government spokesman who has stated the amount is even higher at 270 billion dollars, which surpasses more than half of Iran's GDP before the war. In its Global Peace Index for this year, the institute for Economics and Peace has calculated that the world economy loses 2.2 trillion dollars a year because the war has not ended, the majority of which is being felt in the Gulf and South Asian economies based on their size.

The market players have been riding the waves of every turn. Brent crude has bounced between the high seventies and mid-nineties a barrel on the back of the various headlines of the week, while gasoline in the United States has rebounded to levels above four dollars a gallon as investors seek shelter in gold, which has tested record highs of over 5,400 dollars an ounce at least twice in the week. Before this war, over 20% of the world's oil transit used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but the flow has now come to a halt and shipping companies are adding war risk premiums that render many routes unprofitable. The only consistent winners on Wall Street so far through all this volatility are the defence and energy companies.

Even if diplomacy is lacking its brilliance, it hasn't completely died out. The memorandum would help ensure the strait remained open, but this week Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who said Washington is open to talks with Iran, attributed responsibility for attacks on commercial shipping to Iran's efforts to kill the document. The country said to be working behind the scenes to reopen the negotiations that were put on hold by Pakistan in April has had enough to disrupt the markets in one session last week, sending stocks higher and oil lower. Russia has kept up with Tehran all the way, and Tehran has made several trips to Moscow for consultations, a sign that Tehran is not being averse to playing its card with Moscow as well as with Washington and Islamabad. Britain, meanwhile, has withdrawn its entire diplomatic corps from Iran, reflecting a tacit rejection of any immediate de-escalation, and a vote of no confidence in the security situation.

There is plenty of domestic interest in Washington. The pillar of Vice President JD Vance's Secret Service team is facing both administrative and criminal probe for allegedly disclosing operational security information, while the episode has nothing to do directly with Iran and has contributed to a growing perception that the government's machinery is in crisis on many fronts in the capital.

The overall result is a scene of an endless war that neither side wants. In economic terms Iran is losing blood that would kill most economies in months. The price for real military and political expenses are being taken home by the US. And everyone from the Gulf ship owners to the European gas buyers to Asian manufacturers are taking a hit they did not expect. If it does kick off this weekend in the way that has been signaled, or if it's a weekend of threats and a silent walk back, will tell a lot about the longevity of this.