Washington's strategy of a long game with Iran is revealing a bigger shift in world politics. Saudi Arabia is beefing up regional defence ties, Pakistan is receiving awkward questions about its military ties, Turkey is pushing for more strategic influence and India is coming up against new restrictions on immigration in the technology sector by the US. What started out as two individual events now seem to be part of a bigger struggle for military, energy, trade and economic dominance.

Can President Donald Trump continue to apply pressure on Tehran and not create unacceptable costs for consumers in the U.S., for the Gulf states and for the international economy? Pentagon contingency planning should be set apart from any decision to go into another big offensive. Military readiness does not create a when or how the options are to be used, it simply gives Washington options.

Washington has been turning to economic coercion in recent years after an interim deal with Iran fell apart. America's sanctions and crackdowns on Iran's financial networks have cut off its ability to export oil, but they haven't stopped Tehran from selling oil or putting up a fight against pressure. Iran's refusal to cease using other avenues of trade reveals the limitations of sanctions in the absence of key buyers and intermediaries.

The repercussions don't just affect Iran. The Strait of Hormuz is a key route for trade in energy goods, and the Bab el-Mandeb is another vital shipping trade link that is vulnerable to instability. Insurance rates skyrocket, shipping routes become longer and fuel prices increase, and it all trickles down to manufacturers, airlines, agricultural producers and consumers far from the conflict.

According to the World Bank's October evaluation, these economies in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) will experience an average decline of 4.3 per cent in 2026. This is especially relevant in the case of Saudi Arabia where the economic diversification programme is dependent on reliable energy revenues, international business confidence, and predictable investment circumstances. This is a long-term regional conflict that has the potential to threaten them all.

The regional defence partnership has become a driver in Riyadh's response. The Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey pact, known as Makkah pact, has gained new significance after the Houthis attacks against Saudi interests.The Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey pact, known as Makkah pact, has gained new significance after Houthis attacks against Saudi interests. But a commitment to collective defence does not mean that there are common military obligations. What is important to both countries is the Pakistani ratification of the treaty in parliament and coordination of operation and the exact extent of Pakistani involvement.

The deployment of a major new army contingent to Saudi Arabia needs to be looked at carefully. Islamabad has strong military relations with Riyadh, which involves training and security cooperation. No deployment is a new one unless it has been independently confirmed.

The calculation is no easy task for Pakistan. While the Saudi financial aid and investment are still important, participation in a broader regional conflict could raise domestic political opposition and further financial strain. Islamabad has to juggle the interests of Riyadh, Ankara, Tehran and Washington and deal with an unstable economy.

The World Bank's regional evaluation indicates that the severity of the poverty pressures is increasing in the vulnerable economies, particularly in the context of rising food prices, adverse trade conditions and increases in energy prices. Pakistan is highly reliant on petroleum imports and with the absence of any alternatives, the continued rise in prices is a major concern. The growing cost of fuel imports can weaken the rupee, drive up inflation and add to subsidy pressures and fiscal consolidation.

Turkey's strategic conundrum is different. Ankara is seeking more say in the security of the Gulf, while not ruling out the possibility of playing between the shaft of NATO, Russia and the regional powers. It's longstanding desire to resolve the issue around the American F-35 programme is tied up in larger issues of trust, defence procurement and strategic autonomy. Joining regional security organizations could enhance Turkey's negotiating leverage, but not ensure that the U.S. policy will change.

The United Kingdom is also making tough decisions on its policies in Iran, and to what extent it will follow Washington's lead. Transatlantic coordination may be put to the test regarding commitments to military forces, exposure to trade and risk of escalation. But such disagreements do not necessarily indicate an end to the alliance.

The impact becomes more and more economic for India. Major technology companies such as Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, Cognizant, Capgemini, Microsoft and Adobe have been impacted by the new regulations on employment-based permanent residency sponsorship in the United States.

It's not about the cancellation of all H-1B visas, it's about the Permanent Labor Certification programme, or PERM. However, it throws up questions regarding workforce planning in the future and leaves uncertainty for skilled citizens wanting to be granted permanent residency.

The IT sector, which is valued at about $315 billion in India, is already adapting to artificial intelligence, shifting outsourcing paradigms, and increasing American localization in the country. Spurred by the PERM restrictions, analysts believe few immediate revenue losses to be expected as the top firms have decreased their reliance on this immigration route. Higher compliance costs, challenges in workforce retention and pressure on operating margins are some of the longer-term impacts.

Politics in Washington is focused on job security for American workers. There is a risk that limiting access to foreign talent could raise the price of American software, engineering and artificial intelligence firms. The economic result will be determined by the possibility to recruit domestic talent to provide the same level of skills, while maintaining productivity.

India has become a more complex relationship in light of the controversy brewing around Elon Musk. The contest for digital markets, over satellite communications, industrial investment and regulatory control is raising a fundamental question: can India allow foreign technology and capital in without losing regulatory control over domestic economic agenda? Political controversy regarding Musk's investments should be looked at through the lens of national security concerns, competition rules, and investments.

Another vulnerability has been highlighted recently by aviation-security worries like those of Flydubai and reports of extremist swarms in Minnesota - that governments need to carefully distinguish between confirmed security threats and speculation before making broader geopolitical conclusions. The fact that a criminal allegation is made in isolation or an intelligence claim has not been confirmed does not prove state sponsorship.