Donald Trump was in Ohio from a youth sports event and in front of a group of reporters Tuesday evening at Joint Base Andrews, with one of the broader assertions of his second term in office: that the United States has "total control" of the Strait of Hormuz, that Iran does not have control and that "if Iran does anything, they get blown away" in the waterway. It was old fashioned Trump, to the point and unambiguous and spoken with the same tone as he had when he spoke about the records he set in the stock market or about the size of the crowd. But the claim comes at a time when the fact is the oil flows, shipping insurance and naval incidents in the Gulf are a much more complicated story than the "we own it" claim would imply.

The timing was no accident. Two Navy MH-60 helicopters operated by US Central Command fired two Hellfire missiles into the engine room of a Panama-flagged cargo vessel hours before Trump spoke, US Central Command confirmed on Wednesday. The strike was seen as evidence that American troops are “highly vigilant and lethal,” CENTCOM said in the statement. Whether the operational rationale is clearly stated or not, it is not the prerogative of a power already claiming the waterway that it wants to keep open to disable a civilian merchant vessel, but rather that of a power still struggling to retain it.

The contradiction has almost pervaded every independent report on what actually is going on in the strait. This week, CNN reported that shipping data fails to substantiate the administration's repeated assertions that the US Navy has "cleaned up" the passage of mines and returned to normal shipping conditions. Maritime trackers have shown that the flow of vessels has decreased by about 95 percent through the Hormuz port since the war's outbreak in February, from an average of about 178 before the war, the World Economic Forum said. Energy Secretary Chris Wright gave a more hopeful estimate on Tuesday, however, and said the flow of oil through the strait averaged nearly 9 million per day over the past seven days, which is far greater than the near standstill of a few weeks ago, but remains below the 20 million per day that was moving before the conflict. Wright said the remaining five to seven million barrels per day are currently being transported through overland pipelines and other export terminals that Gulf producers have hurried to increase as part of total regional output, which is now at nearly 15 million bpd. But, even under the administration's best estimates, the Gulf is operating at only about three-quarters capacity with a series of workarounds, not under anyone's control.

Wouldn't you rather believe in the insurance market than any government announcement; it's a far more honest measure. Tanker war-risk premiums have been up and down the channel since the first strikes began in Hormuz, surging with each successive round of strikes and temporarily subsiding during periods of ceasefire negotiations. Earlier this year these rates reached a peak of three to 10 per cent of a vessel's hull value, a figure that is still around one-fifth of such a vessel's worth as it was before the war. A few had the going rate in the five percent range this week. Underwriters at Lloyd's have been adamant that coverage is available at a price, but owners and captains are making their own decisions as to whether that price and the physical risk will be worth it decisions that markets are making away from the Washington talking points.

Iran, however, is not backing down one bit in rhetorical terms. Foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei pointed to the war as the reason for the closure of the strait, using the word language almost to tick Trump off, noting that it had been open since the time of the Prophet Adam. An adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei separately announced that Hormuz will not reopen while Iran's conditions are not met, including the resolution of the war, the return of frozen Iranian assets and action on the Gaza and Lebanon issues. Tehran has also raised reparations demands to be linked to the conflict, which have not been welcomed by Washington. A Revolutionary Guard's official, who spoke anonymously to the Associated Press, also indicated Tuesday that Iran has taken a new approach to its strategy of launching an offensive after a shake-up of top officers, a development that doesn't align with Trump's statement that Iran has been “cowed.”

This standoff cost is being borne far outside the Gulf. Brent crude added a sixth consecutive session of gains on Wednesday in London, trading just above 89 dollars a barrel, directly affecting fuel prices, freight rates and inflation data from Rotterdam to Mumbai. This 21 mile-wide channel transports about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and a similar amount of world-wide liquefied natural gas, thus making any disruption here felt far from the Persian Gulf on fuel bills. Washington has, quietly, introduced a twenty-billion-dollar reinsurance shield via its development finance corporation to incentivize tankers to return to the strait; tacit admission that market forces rather than naval proclamations will be the factors that decide whether shipping returns to normal. While Washington and Tehran are engaged in a game of cat-and-mouse, China has been trying its own line to Tehran, having dispatched its ambassador there this week to meet with Iranian officials who have already purchased Gulf oil from China's producers.

Remove the rhetoric of "we own it" and all that is left is a waterway still in dispute over barrels moved, premiums paid and not a decision made by anyone's decree in the Gulf it has always been a struggle of control, not a struggle of press conferences.