Five months in to a conflict that started with the assassination of Iran's supreme leader, President Donald Trump is placing his hopes on a single phone call to secure results that have been elusive after months of bombing. Talks with Tehran will resume today, the fourth or fifth such effort since February, and the price of the crude is already telling; after hours, prices of Brent edged over five percent lower after the announcement, a response that traders have learned over the years not to count on. The sequence is almost commonplace: a weekend of strikes, a Monday morning "breakthrough" and in days to come, another missile flying over the Persian Gulf reminding all of the world that paper promises and battlefield realities are two very different phenomena.

This round is unique because Iran is being run by which people. The man Washington is seeking to talk down is no longer the cleric who signed the 2015 nuclear deal nor even his old-age successor of assumptions. The hardliner, who took over the title after his father's death in the first salvo of this war, it is Mojtaba Khamenei, who spent his first weeks in office in hiding and has threatened to “avenge his father's blood” himself. To date, Trump has publically called him a "lightweight" that "will not last long. It's an old prediction that's fallen short. In a more sobering account, Iranian officials briefed on the inner workings of their government tell a different story: real power now resides not with the new Ayatollah, but with the Revolutionary Guard command structure, and several diplomatic sources now believe Tehran really does see itself winning this war of attrition, despite the Washington and Tel Aviv narrative.

Putin, whose support has come in no small measure, stands behind Khamenei. In hours of his appointment, Moscow was the first capital to congratulate the new leader and offered him "unwavering support" and since then, there have been numerous reports of the sharing of intelligence on the positions of American warships and aircraft in the Gulf, exactly the sort of data that would allow Iranian forces to deliver a far more precise blow to American assets. China, meanwhile, has been a bit calmer in its diplomatic demeanour but not any less staunch, issuing a stark warning that any effort to strike Iran's new leadership is a line Beijing will not cross. In practice, however, the conflict has become bilateral between Washington and Tehran, and now more of a great-power alignment, with Russia and China playing a quiet role in helping Iran continue to fight.

The other actor who is getting more than his share is Pakistan. Islamabad has been riding a very thin line condemning strikes against Iran and Iranian strikes on the Gulf states in the same breath, orchestrating the two-week ceasefire that briefly held in April, and providing the negotiating track that bears its capital's name. The Pakistan military establishment's continued ability to maintain direct links with the Revolutionary Guard command comes as no surprise, as Islamabad simultaneously strengthens a defense partnership with Riyadh that is balancing two competing interests, and while all parties remain dependent on Pakistan, none have complete confidence in it.

Saudi Arabia has more clearly changed its calculation than any other participant's. The kingdom once peacefully tolerated pressure on their previous rival now wants the war to be over. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sent his brother, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, to the White House with a clear warning to Trump and Vice President Vance: It's more risky for Riyadh to continue this conflict than it is to end it. Six months of missile fire on Gulf infrastructure, the Strait of Hormuz that open and close each week according to the weekly headlines, and an oil market that's dipped below seventy dollars a barrel and climbed above one hundred and twenty and dropped back down again have made all Gulf capitals realize that endless escalation does not benefit anyone's economy, let alone their own plans for diversification.

On Gaza, the situation isn't any cleaner. For the first time, Hamas has accepted in principle a plan for a staged disarmament process through brokers from Egypt, Qatar and Turkey.But Hamas has changed its stance and agreed, for the first time, to a disarmament process that will be staged through Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. But the group says it would only surrender weapons if Israel would first cease targeted killings, step back to the so-called "yellow line" and allow aid to flow back in and that has been publicly rejected by Israeli officials as putting the cart before the horse. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has made it clear where Washington's patience is, declaring that "Hamas will not be allowed to continue as a military or governing body. The outcome is a set of directions which everyone agrees with on paper and nobody follows.

Economically, it speaks for itself. Oil that reached about one hundred twenty six dollars a barrel at the war's height in March, shed virtually all of that war premium by June and then surged by over twenty percent in one month in July when the strikes resumed, the biggest monthly rise since the war began. Traffic through Hormuz, which formerly handled about one-fifth of world's ships exporting oil, has come to a virtual standstill many times and then slowly started moving back to almost normal levels within a fortnight. Insurers have built war-risk premiums into rates, and that now represents a cost of business for Gulf shipping.

What these combine for is a battle that has surpassed the binary of the American power versus Iranian defiance. Now, it's a war of endurance between Washington, a Tehran backed by Russia, a Gulf bloc eager to leave and a Pakistan hoping everyone is going to get to stay.