Four fires burn today around the world and for the first time in months they are beginning to intercept one another's margins. It seemed like four different stories a week ago stalled peace effort in Ukraine, escalating conflict around Iran, bloody flare-up in the West Bank, and a quiet business deal in Pakistan.

Begin with the call which Washington minimised. On July 4, Trump talked for almost an hour with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who again offered to act as an intermediary in ending the war in Ukraine. Moody was business like, even warm, with Putin taking a few moments to wish Trump and the American people a happy Independence Day. However, this goodwill has not yet manifest itself in the real world. Russian troops took Kostiantynivka, a strategically important city in Donetsk, days later, a claim Kyiv denies, and independent experts at the Institute of the Study of War have repeatedly warned that Russia's war story is a mixture of propaganda and reality. Ukraine, meanwhile, has been carrying out an intense campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, with eight oil refineries struck in a month, and a fuel terminal in St. Petersburg, the president said it was supplying the Kremlin's war chest directly. The human toll hasn't abated either ten people were killed and over a hundred wounded by a Russian missile barrage this week at a Ukrainian defence industry event near Kyiv and six were killed by Ukrainian attacks on a Russian missile base in Kirov region.

This is the context in which the EU has just enacted its 21st set of sanctions, the biggest in four years. Brussels has identified 218 new companies and individuals, pushed sanctioned Russian banks over a 100, released another group from the SWIFT system, and most importantly kept the price cap on Russian crude at $44.10 a barrel for a year, depriving Moscow of any automatic boost from the oil price surge caused by the Iran war. The leaders of Europe now openly speak of an "explosive" Russian banking crisis that is underway but might not be seen for another year or so, as Russia's trade with the EU has declined by about two-thirds of its liquid resources since the beginning of the war, and its sovereign wealth fund has been depleted by two-thirds. Putin is in public asserting his strength. His economy is coming undone behind the statistics, and every new deadline imposed by Washington works to his disadvantage, though Moscow continues to act as if it doesn't care.

South of there it is no more peaceful. Israel has adopted a war stance on two fronts. In the occupied West Bank, two Israeli Jews and four Palestinian civilians were killed in a shooting incident near a settlement outpost on Friday, prompting Israel's Netanyahu government to launch a wide-spread military operation, including an increase in troops, new checkpoints, home demolitions and a push to expedite the legalisation of settlements that have long operated in a legal grey area. Meanwhile, Israel's regional struggle with Iran is ongoing and strikes were reported this evening into another night of continuous operations, as the region braces for the repercussions of a parallel deal that reportedly caught Netanyahu off-guard: Washington's initiative for a Saudi civilian nuclear contract linked to normalisation with Israel. Now, he's going to Washington to see Trump face-to-face and it's going to be double duty damage control. None of this is taking place in isolation of markets. Each stage of the Iran war has pushed up the price of both crude oil and gas, and shaken the Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq in the same week.

Then, there's Pakistan, and the most explosive story of the week is one that isn't about troops moving. Already facing the pressure of being both army chief, chief diplomat-in-all-but-name, economic policymaker and bizarrely the government's new point man on population control, Field Marshal Asim Munir has been caught running a private oil-transport business alongside Iran's Revolutionary Guard chief. The alliance, according to reports, was instrumental in a de facto ceasefire to allow for Saudi Arabia to avoid Iranian missile attacks the critics refer to it as “ransom dressed up in diplomacy.” It's a commentary on the influence of personal military-business networks on security bargains outside the remit of formal governments, which are not subject to public consultation, and is delivered as Munir promises publicly to quell unrest in Balochistan. It is rare for a man wearing so many hats to wear all of them well and Pakistan's credibility is now on the table.

These four threads are kind of a reflection of the global power equilibrium today. Only ultimatums that can be backed by action will be effective and Trump will be judged on whether the sanctions bite, but do not just get announced. Netanyahu is learning that some of the conflicts he is engaged in on the Gaza front, against Iran and the West Bank cannot be maintained on an endless basis, while having an ally who is negotiating around him. But Islamabad is getting a lesson in the evils of backroom deals, in a part of the world as thick with intelligence agencies looking over one another's shoulders. This is no week to win anything. But everyone's bluff is called into question a bit.That's the heart of the numbers that lie behind the 21st EU sanctions package, which is the largest single weapon Brussels and Washington have at their disposal against Moscow as the Trump-Putin standoff persists.