There's something specific about the political theatre that New Delhi enacted this past weekend, and it should be read, not applauded reflexively. On his first visit to India in seven years, Xi Jinping arrived at Bharat Mandapam for the 18th BRICS Summit and sat opposite Narendra Modi and the two leaders began discussing a "strategic and long-term perspective" of the relationship, after a standstill in relations at the border in the wake of the 2020 clashes. The pictures of the handshake will be shared for days. Remove the dancing and the image below looks less tidy than the optics allude to, while the action is taking place in a region where peace is far from the norm.

Begin with the factual events of the room. The two leaders agreed to work towards settlement of the disputed Himalayan border and said the two sides would try to ease “strategic and economic tensions” in general, the external affairs ministry of India said. People who are reading Chinese from the Chinese capital refer to the language from Beijing as not 'reconciliation' but 'from competition to managed cooperation', which is worth contemplating: managed cooperation is not partnership. It is two hawkish economies saying that they are going to no longer be actively hurting one another, but it's also two economies in which the fundamental disagreements are just where they were. The Bloomberg summary of the summit was unbeatably succinct: good vibes, profound divisions remain.

The reason for India's presence at this meeting is explained by the economic numbers. The volume of trade between the two countries grew to a record high of $151.1 billion for the year ending March 2026 and India's trade deficit with China rose to a new high of $112.16 billion during the same period from about $99 billion of the preceding year. India's ability to decouple from China is limited as it is India's top trading partner after five years of political estrangement.

Indian manufacturers, especially in the automobile industry, have been on a scramble for alternatives over the past year, after the restrictions by China cut off the supply of rare-earth magnets, which no one in the general public would think of until the supply chain clogs. Technology access, market reciprocity and investment screening are now as much a part of the India-China dialogue then as troops on a mountain ridge ever were. All told, this is an honest appraisal: it's an economic hedge disguised as a diplomatic reset and the theme of the summit for Indian chairpersons of BRICS resilience and innovation does rather well for a relationship that remains one of mutual suspicion.

Now open the frame, as the same 72 hours that brought you the Xi-Modi photo op brought you reminders of the need for trust in this neighbourhood, in short supply. For years, the western province of Balochistan has effectively been a low-grade battlefield, and the Balochistan Liberation Army and Pakistani Taliban groups have been waging attacks on the province in a coordinated effort that has increased the death toll to 372 in July compared to 131 in June, according to the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies.

The Pakistani response has been to point to India for funding the insurgency, an allegation Islamabad has made for years, without any evidence that has convinced independent observers, while separatist attacks on Pakistani security convoys and police stations and government buildings have become almost weekly occurrences in the city.

But a state that cannot secure its own province in the southwest is on the available record not the kind of state global mediators should lean on to help achieve regional stability and yet Pakistan has been doing exactly that, in seeking to act as a go-between in the nuclear standoff between the United States and Iran, even as reports out of Delhi continue to document its role in recruiting and training specialised units of terrorism such as a maritime wing inside its own country since the April 2025 killings in Pahalgam, which resulted in the deaths of 26 tourists, most of whom targeted due to their religion.

Meanwhile, the Iran file has yet to be resolved. The US and Iran signed a fourteen-point memorandum in June that outlines a framework for talks on Hormuz shipping access, the nuclear programme and sanctions relief, but the underlying war that started with February's strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities has raged in fits and starts ever since. Iranian missile strikes at another country are nonexistent for eight consecutive days, the longest uninterrupted period since late in August, though the lull is transient.

The Iranian authorities are pointing at an unnamed "enemy" and at least one domestic outlet has blamed Washington directly after a commercial ship was hit in Iran's own waters in the last 24 hours resulting in the deaths of one seafarer. As of writing, no reprisal had been seen as yet, but a single off-center attack on a commercial vessel is an exact repeat of this conflict's previous start. A conflict no one has really resolved, just put on hold, continues in the UK, France and Germany's snapback sanctions, the Iranian rial has been in freefall, and the shipping lanes in Iran, via Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, are under the thumb of the conflict.