The interim government has presented a draft proposal to acquire the 4.5 generation Chinese fighter to the finance ministry and the armed forces division for final approval, confided Zahed Ur Rahman, information and broadcasting adviser to the interim government this week. The package doesn't just apply to jets. It also is a combined package of Chinese attack helicopters, VIP transport helicopters and a fleet of unmanned aerial systems that officials hope could pass Bangladesh's parliament within this fiscal year or the following year, depending on the budget math.

The newsworthy part of the announcement is to be found elsewhere from the hardware. It's the justification. Dhaka "heard" four-day clashes between Indian and Pakistani forces over May last year, when it was reported Indian Rafale jets were downed by Pakistani J-10CEs equipped with PL-15 long-range missiles and active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, Rahman told reporters. He went so far as to make the statement 'established', a term Islamabad has used but which New Delhi and Paris have neither accepted nor will accept. The head of Dassault Aviation, Executive Chairman Eric Trappier, made a public denial of the three Rafales being shot down. Later, India's own chief of the air staff Air Chief Marshal AP Singh claimed that at least five Pakistani aircraft were shot down and a larger military plane was brought down in that operation, which also does not sit well with Islamabad's rendition of the history. Outside experts who have followed the episode as specialist sites have sifted through open-source information say the two versions are unverifiable, not definitive. But all that is a matter for negotiation, and the episode has not deterred anyone from turning a fighter around into a selling point.

The political masks a hard commercial logic. The Armed Forces Division has estimated the cost at the tune of about Tk 28,314 crore, which amounts to a programme of some two billion dollars, if one adds up the cost of the jets, the munitions, the training, the ground infrastructure and the 10 years of technical support. Set against that is the price of the alternative. A Rafale unit costs Beijing's quoting for the J-10CE by quite a bit and that could make all the difference for a nation that is in the middle of a balance-of-payments squeeze, and has been running its currency under repeated pressure. The Bangladesh air force is currently operating a combination of old Chinese-built MiG-21s, which have been reverse engineered from the Soviet-built MiG-21, and a small number of MiG-29s. If either were replaced with Western aircraft, the years of negotiating price, financing and offset clauses would have been tripped up by smaller air forces. With financing terms and an already existing regional maintenance and training habitat that has been adopted by Pakistan, the pitch by China eliminates most of that friction.

The ecosystem argument should be given more consideration than it often is. Beijing is already big time in Bangladesh's military importation, be it subs, armoured vehicles, or any other platform. Adding the J-10CE to that stockpile is not only an aircraft, it's a commitment to a Chinese doctrine, spares and training programs that will be hard and costly to scrub a decade down the road, whatever the government in Dhaka. It is important to note, also, that Paris had its own attempt here French President Emmanuel Macron introduced the Rafale to Bangladesh during his visit in 2023 and the Eurofighter consortium separately signed the letter of intent in December this year. Both attempts have failed to materialize over the same price and financing obstacle that has thus far prevented the J-10 family from selling to other potential customers such as Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Colombia and Iran, which have considered the jet and backed out.

Bangladesh would be the second confirmed customer of the J-10CE, with Pakistan having bought the type into service 14 years ago. It is a relatively low number given the goals of a nation that is only starting to develop a credible second export market for its fighters, and it speaks volumes about the subdued confidence of buyers in the Chinese jet despite the excellent performance of the Chengdu J-20.Compared to the standards of a nation that is emerging as a credible second fighter export customer, that is a modest number and reflects the careful approach that buyers continue to take when considering a Chinese jet against a Western or Russian competitor. According to data on global arms trade over the past five years, China's exports account for less than six percent, far behind the U.S., France and Russia. If, in addition to the reported interest from Uzbekistan for two dozen airframes, a Dhaka order came in, it would be the clearest sign of change of perception as a result of the fighting that took place in May.

The discomfort for New Delhi isn't so much about twenty aircraft. It's about geography. A Chinese-origin, combat-tested fleet, with a small number of those on both the west and east coasts, alters the mental map of any Indian air planner more than just numbers can. That India's air force continues to maintain a definite technological edge with its Rafale and Su-30MKIs is not in doubt. However, the significance behind Dhaka citing Pakistan's contested victory claims as the impetus for purchasing Chinese, just as the two countries were tentatively patching up relations after the political transition in Bangladesh, is what will remain to linger in South Asian capitals for the longest time a reminder that in this neighbourhood, a single vague afternoon of fighting can change ten years of procurement decisions.