An independent global assessment for the fifth consecutive year has rated the Indian Air Force more capable than its Chinese counterpart in total combat power, a rating that will be seen as a confirmation of the Indian Air Force's strength by its military supporters and as an embarrassment by its Chinese counterparts, but which should be interpreted with greater seriousness than either side might muster. The World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, which has been compiling one of the more detailed open-source databases on military aviation around the world for many years, has released this month its 2026 Global Air Power Rankings, which put the IAF at 69.4, ahead only of the People's Liberation Army Air Force at 63.8. Only the US Air Force, US Navy, US Army, US Marine Corps aviation and the Russian Air Force scored higher, meaning India sits third among actual national air forces, behind only Washington and Moscow.

The interesting part of the ranking is not how high the ranking is but how they actually made that ranking. WDMMA records 129 air services in 103 countries and over 48,000 aircraft, rather than just aircraft, it takes into account modernisation, logistics, aerial refuelling, airborne early warning, transport depth and indigenous manufacturing capacity. But on the basis of sheer numbers, the PLAAF holds an advantage of 3,733 aircraft to the IAF's 1,716. But the index is not about numbers; it's about balance and that's where India's argument holds true: 542 fighters of seven types, 498 helicopters (increasingly indigenous Dhruv and Rudra), 282 transport aircraft, 374 trainers and 20 specialised mission aircraft (surveillance and refuelling). It's not a force of force, it's a force of versatility, and that's what the rank is all about.

This is where the festival-mere headlines rolling over Indian TV screens this week veer from the plot, however. But strip away the ranking and consider the fine print of the same report and the picture becomes a lot more subdued. Parliamentary defence committees have been sounding the alarm on the IAF's shortfall for several years and it is unlikely to narrow rapidly, as the force currently has 29 squadrons while the government has approved 42. The force still has the retired MiG-21 in its fleet accounting despite formally withdrawing the type in September last year though this is more of an accounting quirk than it is an indication of reality. Lack of force-multipliers that do actually make a difference in a modern air war exist across the board from aerial refuelling tankers to airborne early warning platforms, electronic warfare and long-range surveillance.

This disparity is most evident when discussing capability indices with cheque books. The 2025 defence expenditure in China is estimated to be between 300 and 375 billion dollars based on differing international databases, dwarfing India's defence budget at around 90-109 billion dollars for the current budget cycle. This year, India's defence ministry got its biggest ever budget, 784,678 crore rupees, an increase of 15.2 per cent from the previous year, with capital expenditure for new purchases having increased by nearly 22 per cent to over 219,000 crore rupees. Aero-engine and aircraft procurement alone got a 63,733 crore rupee allocation, which is a significant jump from the previous year, while the allocation for research and development jumped to 17,250 crore rupees, reflecting the increased thrust of the government towards developing locally produced platforms. However, India's defence expenditure remains at about 2 per cent of GDP, far below the 2.5-3 per cent target recommended repeatedly by the defence standing committee set up by the government to ensure India makes genuine modernisation strides, not incremental patching.

The point is that while India is filling capability gaps, China isn't. By some estimates, Beijing's defence research and development budget alone would far exceed the entire defence budget of India, and its naval aviation branch, which, by itself, ranked 15th in the world with an estimated 436 aircraft, is growing at a pace that indicates a vision that extends beyond the Himalayan belt to the Indo-Pacific and Indian Ocean. China's military buildup has prompted a corresponding increase in military spending from Japan, Australia and South Korea and the Quad grouping of India, the United States, Japan and Australia has become the forum in which New Delhi seeks to narrow the gap in terms of resources through interoperability.

In fact, India's modernisation agenda recognizes the pressure. The order for 180 Tejas Mk-1A light fighters is on schedule for proceeding in phases; the procurement of up to 114 more Rafale jets has not yet been decided, and over 200 of the aging Jaguar, Mirage 2000 and MiG-29 aircraft are on the chopping block for retirement by the 2030s, meaning that the squadron deficit could be even more pronounced before it becomes more pronounced unless replacement programmes move at a pace quicker than India's defence procurement tempo. The WDMMA ranking is a true indicator of the operational balance and quality control which the Indian Air Force has established over the years. It is not, however, a replacement for numbers of squadrons, share of the budget, or the industrial strength that a two-front security posture ultimately requires. It would be wrong to equate this year's ranking with parity with China, rather it would be a reflection of India's ability to do more with much less, which has a limit when the spending differential begins to expand once more.