The agenda of foreign ministers entering the Philippine International Convention Center this week is constantly changing, much like a kaleidoscope. The meeting of the foreign ministers of the ASEAN bloc of 11 nations has become more of a crisis briefing session than a routine affair, as the region's nations attempt to chart a course through a Middle East war that has yet to come to an end and a neighborhood with many of its own problems to solve.

It is as if Southeast Asia is in the middle of a financial disaster. But as Washington and Tehran again turned to open hostilities after their ceasefire was broken, the energy markets had another convulsion, and the impact is hitting hard on the economies that depend most on oil and gas imports from Tehran. Brent crude has surged back above ninety dollars a barrel, about thirty percent up from its levels prior to war breaking out in February, and had spiked as high as 120 dollars in April before a short respite in summer. Tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz normally account for more than a third of seaborne crude oil and a fifth of all oil traffic in the world have been reduced to a trickle, with many ships now having to pay unofficial tolls to Iranian forces just to cross the strait. In countries such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia that rely on imports for the majority of their energy supplies, that means increased fuel subsidies, larger trade deficits and inflation that central banks throughout the region are trying to manage though not necessarily announce without increasing their growth projections.

The ministers are seeking several opportunities to discuss what is a “very critical topic,” according to Philippine government spokesperson Dominic Xavier Imperial, ahead of the meeting. What may be diplomatically described as a war has already given Asian equity markets a rough ride over, seeing Tokyo and Seoul experience significant declines in the past few weeks, while some regional markets saw temporary glimmers of hope during ceasefire rumors that ultimately fizzled. War-risk insurance premiums have jumped, refiners are repanning margins, and shipping lines are looking for alternate routing because the world economy wasn't designed to operate without a chokepoint.

But the Middle East is just one of Manila's many distractions. The Philippines had already charged Chinese coast guard personnel with beating one of its navy service members with a baton near Second Thomas Shoal, which Beijing called a "misinformed" occurrence, just days before the ministers sat down. The U.S. State Department, acting swiftly, characterized the "provocation" it said it was witnessing against "lawful Philippine maritime activity" as troubling, a statement that will not defuse the tension in a waterway through which trillions of dollars in trade flow every year. Rubio, Washington's top diplomat, and China's Wang Yi are both set to arrive in the country in the next few days and could meet on the sidelines, a meeting regional capitals will be keeping a close eye on as much as any other on the agenda. Ten years after the start of negotiations, there is still no binding code of conduct for the South China Sea between ASEAN and China and each new incident makes the prospect of one feel further from rather than nearer.

Then there is Myanmar, the wound ASEAN has never been able to heal. The bloc's own peace roadmap is in many ways still theoretical five years after a military coup brought the country into a civil war in which more than one hundred thousand people have died so far. After five years of efforts, the organization has little leverage, and a modest sign of that is the fact that ministers are to have an informal consultation about the crisis. Humanitarian corridors are still not reliable; there is still much trade with Thailand and China, though it is still underground, and investors who used to see Myanmar as Southeast Asia's next frontier market have largely given up on it for the time being.

The same uncomfortable reality that binds these three crises together is the fact that ASEAN's declared goal of 'ASEAN Centrality' is being challenged by forces outside its control. The bloc is not the trigger man for the war in Iran, does not control the situation in the South China Sea or exercise much influence over Myanmar's army. It can do is the crafting of a diplomatic statement of concern, a call for restraint, and a call for dialogue, and it will likely produce. That's not zero. India, Japan, Australia, South Korea, Russia, Britain and the European Union are all sending observers to the meeting, making Manila a once-in-a-lifetime venue for competing powers to read each other's minds without resorting to statements or satellite images.

But the economic consequences not just in the region but beyond are what concern policymakers. More than three trillion dollars of trade flows through Southeast Asia's seas annually and the region's economy is heavily reliant on import security and unhindered sea routes. A long-term Hormuz disruption, combined with an unresolved South China Sea stand-off, is the type of double bind that would take its toll on growth, albeit in a subtle way: higher shipping insurance, costlier fuel, and investors who simply decide not to invest in a shaky neighborhood. The actual challenge this week is whether the consensus driven ASEAN can have any meaningful words about a world that is advancing more quickly than the ASEAN meetings can keep up.