The package announced by Washington includes 48 F-35s, 49 Pratt & Whitney F135 engines (one of which is a spare), communications equipment, training, logistics, spares and associated support. Lockheed Martin would be the main aircraft builder and Pratt & Whitney the engines. More importantly, this is an approval for an unspecified amount of Foreign Military Sale, not a signed $24.3 billion purchase contract. Congress could review the deal, contracts could be renegotiated, deliveries would be years in the making and final prices would be unknown.

Saudi Arabia has developed one of the largest Air forces in the Middle East around U.S. and European-made aircraft over the past few decades. Janes reports that it holds a stock of 82 F-15SA Advanced Eagles, 63 F-15S aircraft, 66 F-15Cs, 20 F-15Ds, 72 Eurofighter Typhoons and 79 Tornados. The F-35 would bring a whole new concept: A low-observable aircraft featuring sensors, electronic warfare, targeting and networked operations that could enter a complex air-defence environment.

The seasonality is also important. Saudi Arabia is facing fresh security challenges from the Houthis in Yemen and the broader Iranian-backed fight has returned the risk of the region to the energy markets. Markets were considering damage to Saudi energy infrastructure and ongoing threats to shipping and oil flows as both Brent crude and WTI were trading around $104.49 and $102.79 a barrel, respectively, on Friday.

From the perspective of Riyadh, the F-35 isn't just a "prestige plane. It is part of a larger effort to construct strategic depth, when missiles, drones and attacks on energy infrastructure have proven that conventional numerical superiority is not as much a guarantee of security.

There's a lot of money in the economics of it. SIPRI estimates the actual military spending in Saudi Arabia at approximately $83.2 billion in 2025, which represents a 1.4 per cent increase in real terms and qualified it as one of the world's eight biggest military spenders. The proposed package for the F-35 has a value of $24.3bn, which is about 29 per cent of that annual expenditure, but would be spread across several years of course.

Saudi Arabia is targeting 50 per cent of military equipment and services spending to be localised by 2030, in the Vision 2030 initiative. According to Saudi authorities, localization was 24.89 per cent by the end of 2024. This would imply that the maintenance and training requirements of those programmes, their supply lines and technology, the skilled jobs that can be provided within the kingdom, as well as the industrial activity that will take place, would also be important factors in the negotiation of those programmes in the future.

The deal ties up the commercial, military and geopolitical aspects of the situation for Washington. It puts Riyadh more firmly in the American defence system and establishes decades of dependency on the US-controlled software, maintenance, training, upgrades, engines and logistics. It also builds up Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney's long-term business in the Gulf region, as global military spending hits a new high of $2.887 trillion.

Israel is still the only operator in the Middle East and is operating the F-35I Adir which is a customised version of the F-35. Under American law, Israel's qualitative military advantage must be taken into account when Washington approves large arms deals to the region. A Saudi force of 48 aircraft would therefore give rise to more questions than just the number of aircraft: what if they were configured differently, had different capabilities in the electronic warfare arena, carried different weapons, had different software and what about the restrictions on its operation?

American intelligence agencies have been reviewing hard Saudi ties with China to see if the Chinese could provide avenues for the sharing of such sensitive technology as the F-35, recent reporting stated. Special focus has reportedly been on Chinese access to Saudi facilities and telecommunications infrastructure. These are the reported concerns of U.S. intelligence, and not proof of Riyadh doing so. However, as some of America's most closely-guarded military systems are on board the aircraft, technology security may be one of the trickiest parts of the negotiations.

It provides Washington with leverage, and Riyadh with bargaining power. It has been a deliberate policy, adopted by Saudi Arabia in recent years, to deliberately broaden its strategic relationships. China is a key economic partner and potential suppliers of advanced combat aircraft are also in Europe. The three aircraft Janes says have all been competing around the Saudi need for about 50 more aircraft. The F-35's approval by the State Department does not, in itself, indicate selection of the aircraft.

The true battle is who will construct the security architecture of the Gulf for the next generation. Washington aims for Saudi Arabia to be part of an American military alliance. Riyadh is seeking "high-end capability" but without compromising on the strategic flexibility gained by having ties with the United States, China, Europe and others. Israel is seeking to ensure that its technological edge continues to be shielded in any Saudi capability designed.Israel wants to ensure that its own technological edge does not lose out in any structure of the Saudi capability.

The $24.3 billion figure is then just the tip of the iceberg. The more substantive talks focus on technology, industrial access, China, Israel, energy security and Saudi strategic autonomy.