Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal met US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Wisconsin and urged them to expedite the interim trade agreement, suggesting a step forward towards making the trade talks a reality for both nations.

The timing matters. The Goyal-Greer meeting followed shortly after the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump spoke and discussed cooperation in the field of trade, defence, energy and critical technologies. Though significant commercial and tariff matters continue to be negotiated, it appears that trade has once again shifted towards the political centre of the relationship.

The financial consequence is high. Total bilateral trade in goods and services is estimated at $239.6 billion in 2025, which is 12.1 per cent higher than in 2024, according to US government data. The value of trade of goods was approximately $149 billion. Imports of India goods to the USA were valued at approximately $104 billion and exports of US goods to India approximately $45 billion resulting in a US goods deficit of approximately $58 billion. The service becomes one of the biggest components of a relationship that has increasingly taken a more tech-focused, capital and supply chain twist instead of merchandise.

The United States, from the Indian side is a must for India in terms of trade. According to the data of the Indian Commerce Department, America is the biggest export market for India. In addition to engineering goods, pharmaceuticals, textiles, chemicals, gems and jewellery, marine products, electronics have become an important part of the industry. This is because even minor disparities in the American treatment of taxes can affect the decisions on investment, factory utilization and employment in various export industries.

Why final negotiations are so important is discussed in the Feb framework. Washington and New Delhi reached an agreement on imposing 18% reciprocal tariff on specified originating Indian goods, while wiping out the reciprocal tariff, if the interim pact is successfully concluded, on a list of items such as generic pharmaceuticals, gems and diamonds and aircraft parts. India, in turn, agreed to lower or remove tariffs on US industrial goods, and chose agricultural products to lower or remove tariffs on, as well as dealing with several non-tariff barriers.

However, an agreement on a framework is not identical with all the negotiating details. On September 24, Goyal confirmed the agreement was “done and dusted” but added that “implementation” would be contingent upon India being given a “fair playing field” in competing with rival suppliers to the American market. This is important commercially because Indian exporters are not only competing for orders with the American producers, but also with the factories in Vietnam, Bangladesh, China and other Asian economies.

This is when tariffs turn from just a customs matter to an investment matter. In the case of the electronics, pharmaceuticals, engineering, apparel and footwear, chemicals and processed goods, additional manufacturing capacity in India is more justifiable in the light of stable availability to the American market. On the other hand, a small number of percentage points of tariff disadvantage vis-à-vis Asia's production centres can impact sourcing decisions on big contracts.

Politics is still an issue of agriculture. In the framework drawn up in February, more products were to be made available, such as fruit and animal-feed products, soybean oil and tree nuts, and India has publicly insisted that certain sensitive domestic products would be protected. Important food grains and dairy products have been specifically mentioned with regard to safeguard measures in New Delhi. The final text of the law, schedules of tariffs and quotas, and safeguards will thus be more significant than general political statements.

What of the energy? The framework agreement in February said India will import $500 billion worth of energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products and coking coal from the U.S. over five years. It is not only a trade balancing mechanism. It offers the potential to bridge the massive future demand in India for aviation, data centres, AI infrastructure, energy and industrial raw materials from America's production capacity.

But there's a geopolitical twist to the trade talks: Russian energy. The recent U.S. actions and schemes to connect tariffs to U.S. purchases of Russian oil have raised concerns in New Delhi, where energy import and its affordability have long been seen as a matter of national economic security. Such a move to transform a bilateral energy deal into a process of energy policy decision in India may thus create a wedge in negotiations that have strong economic rationale.

The there is also a broad trend in Washington. Greer supported the Trump administration's tariff-driven policy and advocated for the discussion to turn to industrial overcapacity, forced labour, steel and the future of existing international trade rules at the Milwaukee G20 gathering. India is thus talking to an administration which is becoming more and more inclined to make market access a lever of industrial and strategic policy, rather than to the America of the last globalisation cycle.

This is why it is easy to see how New Delhi is negotiating. India requires the American market, the technology, the capital and the energy system but also something which the U.S. government is hard pressed to find – scale. India is the most populous nation in the world with over 1.4 billion people, and the country's digital consumption is also increasing rapidly, as are the air travel needs and energy demand and its manufacturing industry.

The actual prize is therefore bigger than an 18 per cent tariff number.

A lasting deal between India and the US could help in reinvigorating investment, building up electronics and advanced manufacturing supply chains, boosting Indian energy and technology exports to the US and provide more certainty to Indian exporters regarding their largest export market. It could also offer businesses something they've come to find to be very valuable in this unique global economy: visibility.