Delhi's rice, trade calendar just got clearest indication so far that the world has not lost interest in rice from India. Organisers have already received 3,317 signatures from 138 countries, including users from Dhaka to Dakar to Jakarta, from when the Bharat International Rice Conference (BIRC) starts on October 23 at Bharat Mandapam Center. That is a triumph for an industry that has been dealing with the fallout of an export ban for much of 2023 and early 2024.

The Indian Rice Exporters Federation, which finalized its list by August 30, relates its own geopolitical story. Bangladesh is at the top with 336 buyers, a reminder of the close linkages between the two countries' food economies. West Africa is the fastest growing market for Indian non-basmati shipments, followed by Benin (179) and Nigeria (177). A total of 145 buyers from the UAE, 137 from Nepal, 127 from Ethiopia, 125 from Saudi Arabia, 109 from Indonesia and 109 from South Africa have come to buy. Smaller, but significant clusters are in from Iraq, Somalia, Yemen, Cote d'Ivoire, Niger, Guinea, Mali, Angola, Kenya and Australia. The federation's vice president, Dev Garg, called this evidence that the Indian exporters are not satisfied with networking anymore and have started looking towards the conference getting converted into contracts.

The scale of these numbers never comes anytime without there being some real points to ponder about. Just two years ago, India was exporting rice in small amounts at 16.35 million tonnes (mt) when the government limited the exports of some non-basmati varieties to reduce domestic prices during a tight global supply situation. After the unwinding of those curbs was completed in 2024, shipments surged, rising by 23 percent to nearly 13 billion dollars on 20.1 million tonnes shipped to more than 170 countries in 2024-25. The industry is forecasting a harvest of 23.5 million tonnes for this fiscal year, well short of the 24.5 million tonne record in 2020-21 but still higher than last year's 22.35 million tonne harvest. The estimates are even higher from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which pegs India's export levels at approximately 25 million tonnes in 2025-26.

That translates into between 40 and 45 per cent of all the world's rice trade now going through India, so much so that when the country's supply was withdrawn from the market in 2023, rice prices rocketed and when it returned, those of its competitors, Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan, dipped as buyers rushed to lower-priced Indian cargoes. In 2024, global rice exports valued at nearly 39 billion dollars, with Asia contributing nearly 80 percent of the exports. India's share of this pie, by value, is now estimated to be a third, an unusually high amount for a politically sensitive commodity like food grain.

The dichotomy between basmati and non-basmati is worth exploring, as it gives an idea of why the buyers from contrasting parts of the world are flocking towards one conference hall. The non-basmati, less expensive and unbranded form is used for volumes in Africa and other parts of Asia to serve the government procurement markets and mass consumer market, where aroma is not a decisive factor in customer choice. While Basmati is a high-quality, geographically designated product, the consumers of which are concentrated in the Gulf, Europe and North America and who are looking for grain length, aroma and traceability, not just the price, Basmati is a different product.

This cycle, over 43,000 registration-cum-allocation certificates have been issued to basmati exporters; a testament to how strictly regulated and quality conscious that end of the trade has become.

Then there's the more difficult economic case in the buyers list, which is more than just the headliner figures. IREF's import-export analysis of a basket of 26 countries reveals that exports in the value of the basket increased by 1.1 per cent in value and 5.6 per cent in volume compared to November 2025 to Mianear 23,500 crore rupees in March 2026. The UAE had the largest increase in export value (+65 percent year-on-year), followed by Belgium (+53.8 percent year-on-year) and Germany (+33.4 percent year-on-year).

That's significant for exporters' margins in relatively small, high value European and Gulf markets, where it indicates that India is finally making a market, and premium retail shelves, as opposed to filling government warehouses.

The conference itself is being designed with this aim. With an app-based business-matching system, buyers, millers and exporters will be able to search for potential partners and sort them based on variety, volume and market need, instead of by chance at a trade floor. ITC Hotels is organizing a food festival based on Indian rice varieties, that correspond to a cuisine, with a view to sell the rice not just by the price sheet, but on the plate too. Crop surveys, price forecasting and market outlooks through 2027 are among nine knowledge sessions that are squarely aimed at converting the footfall into forward contracts.

None of this cancels the vulnerability that made the crisis of 2023 possible in the first place: In weeks, a policy change in New Delhi, brought about by a bad monsoon or an election-season price hike, can bring supply chains to a halt from Lagos to Manila. Buyers are aware of this and, consequently, diversification of markets and varieties has become the watchword and not an afterthought for the industry. Hopefully a group of 138 countries will help minimise that danger, but it will be exporters, not organisers, who will need to demonstrate over the next two months that the number of registrants can make the trek from the conference room to the contract for shipping.