The Gulf's most visible peace dividend was almost a crash site 11 days before the third anniversary of October 7. A flydubai Boeing 737 MAX, packed with Israelis travelling from Dubai to Tel Aviv on September 30, plummeted low over Saudi Arabia. Data from the trackers revealed that it dropped about 16,600 feet over just a bit over thirty seconds.

The UAE's prosecutor general has admitted what was suspected for days on Saturday. The first officer had already struck the captain from afar with the emergency axe in the cockpit and the attempted to take control of the aircraft. For the first time, the Emirati government has termed the attack a terrorist attempt, using the term that was usually reserved for the attacks that occurred during the 1990s.

There was luck and nerve to stop it. The door was opened by a man, who was Captain Smit Machchhar, an Indian national, and blood was visible on the cockpit floor. People stampeded in to the aircraft and, by chance, a reserve flydubai pilot got onboard and landed the plane in Tabuk, north-west Saudi Arabia. The crown prince of Dubai came to the captain's hospital and congratulated him for his bravery. He spoke with Modi via video. Donald Trump released a video thanking him for his help. Benjamin Netanyahu said that the men who subdued the attacker had prevented a "September 11 like catastrophe.

The suspect is alleged to be an Omani, Hamam al-Hammami. Oman's aircraft was already grounded over suspicions of extremism, Israeli media report. He revealed to investigators he was supposed to land in Israel; CNN reports that his name has been attached to videos after the attack that featured al-Qaeda figures. Netanyahu claims he was ‘radicalized’ and that Israel is asking the question as to whether anyone sent him. The UAE is spearheading the investigation, along with Israeli investigators. None of this has been proven in court and anyone who thinks they know more about the reasoning behind these claims than what prosecutors have stated is merely speculating.

The bigger puzzle is how this man was sitting in that seat. Tel Aviv's airspace remained open to dozens of Omani pilots who had continued to fly into Israel, according to one Israeli report. If this is the case, they who vetted him and placed him on the list, do not fail him; he is not a failure of a faith or a nationality. Israel's airport screening is some of the most comprehensive in the world and it asks, "Who is getting on board? The incident happened in the cockpit, the seat of the abysmal lack of passenger-side security. The question on the lips of every airline is, who is checking the checks on these people?

Oman makes it complicated, and it needs to be treated with caution. Muscat has no diplomatic ties with Israel, has been working for years to broker between Washington and Tehran and is located on the Strait of Hormuz which is a gateway for approximately one fifth of the world's oil supply. It denounced the US-Israeli push against Iran this year, and it has been attacked by Iran. Not a single one of the alleged acts is a government policy; we will not see the UAE's early reaction, from the crown prince's visit to the hospital, to the prime minister's pronouncement of zero tolerance for extremism, as an escalation but as a walling off of a crime.

The price of money demonstrates what's at stake. In 2025, trade between the UAE and Israel reached $3.2 billion, just slightly below 2024's $3.25 billion and approximately 80% of it was exported from the Emirates to Israel. The Emirati foreign ministry estimates the cost at $14.5bn since 2020 accords. The number of $10 billion a year to be reached in 5 years was the stated objective when the two countries signed their trade pact. They are far removed from that and the first five months of 2026 were just one percent up.

The better news has been on the air side. In 2025, the number of passengers on the route increased to approximately 1.53 million, from 892,000 the previous year, representing a growth of 71 percent. In the peak of the Gaza war, flydubai continued to fly to Tel Aviv while many foreign airlines refrained, Cirium figures reported by the AP show, with the carrier having flown over 1,800 flights in the year since October 7, 2023. It was good business for a budget airline and it maintained Israel's connection. Now, the airline has stopped all its Israel flights. On Friday, El Al cancelled a few of the repatriation flights, while Arkia and Israir indicated they would fly. A long suspension can become a permanent loss of confidence and once that is lost, so is travel demand.

The rest of the area is without padding. The Houthis issued a warning of aggression against Saudi jets that hit Sanaa on Saturday, while a witness reported fire near an Aramco facility in Riyadh, which no one has confirmed. Saudi Arabia is said to be preparing for a ground invasion of the Houthis in the Red Sea region.

Any new damage to energy sites in the Gulf is occurring at a time when markets are already nervous, with Brent crude trading above $100 early in September and approaching $107 halfway through the month. The Manchester court case involving two Iranian men who are accused of spying on a synagogue for a chlorine bomb is another sign that Jewish and Israeli targets are being investigated from multiple angles. Israel is warning abroad Jewish communities to be alert.