
Gaza’s two-week gamble- Washington bets on a shaky disarmament deal it may not be able to enforce
31 Jul 2026
Created by
The BV Team
But the Gaza ceasefire is in its most precarious state ever and the statistics this week speak for themselves. Hours after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shot down a Gaza disarmament framework signed by Hamas, President Donald Trump will be "very, very disappointed" if Israel slows the process of implementing his own plan, a senior U.S. official warned Thursday. It's more than just a styling flair. A primer of what Washington and Jerusalem see in the same document is the clarity of the difference.The difference in how Washington and Jerusalem see in the same document is the clarity.
This is what really happened. Hamas's willingness to accept the Board of Peace's disarmament roadmap began a 14-day clock that is meant to culminate in finalizing a timeline for the implementation of the plan. The exact plan will be worked out during that period, and it can be extended only if an international verification body and everyone agrees. A realistic date for full disarmament of Hamas is somewhere between 200 and 350 days, or more than a year, into the future, according to Board of Peace officials briefing reporters, rather than the tidy weeks that Trump's social media comments might indicate. It's a bold statement from the process gillies: They are telling reporters, essentially, not to get too attached to a deadline that may slowly slip, as previous deadlines have done.
Netanyahu's government does not hide its doubts. It is stating through channels and public announcements to former UK PM Tony Blair that the document is not providing the complete demilitarization of Gaza that Israel has been promised prior to any further withdrawal. The 15-point text being discussed fails to meet Israeli demands for the complete disarmament of Hamas, which required the removal of weapons from the Strip and complete demilitarization as conditions for any pullback. In reply, Washington in the same briefing was quite blunt, saying that Israel had agreed to this exact sequencing months ago and that it can't change it now because the early days have proved rather slow and bumpy.
But there's a tougher economic reality lurking behind the political argument. The damage assessment, released by the joint World Bank, European Union and United Nations this spring, estimated Gaza's economic losses at around $58 billion and the total cost to rebuild in the next decade at close to $71 billion well in excess of the cost of all previous Gaza conflicts since 2008. The cost of housing is in the billions, commerce, agriculture and industry another $19.5 billion and the report's authors have said that none of it will move until governance clarity is written on the ground. The Board of Peace reports that it has already received almost $16 billion, mostly from the Gulf states, that it has deliberately withheld disbursement until Hamas's pledge to disarm was translated from theory to practice. There's also a gap of about $55 billion that still needs to be filled, and security vacuum donors aren't about to start sending huge checks.
The mechanics of the plan itself is fathomably more complex than the headlines. Hamas will be handed over police weapons first, followed by heavy and arms depots and tunnel networks, and finally by personal weapons, under rules that are similar to the current Palestinian Authority firearm law. A National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, a Palestinian technocratic body that has yet to be appointed, is supposed to gradually replace the Palestinian Authority in civil administration, while an Implementation Verification Committee is meant to ensure that each phase is certified before moving on to the next, and an International Stabilization Force, which so far has been only on paper, is supposed to gradually replace the P.A. in military control of the Gaza Strip. About 5,000 foreign soldiers have been pledged from a few nations, such as Morocco, Kosovo, Albania and Kazakhstan, but only a few soldiers have arrived in Israeli territory, in advance, to be deployed. The training of a new force of Gazan police has also started on paper, not in reality, with the majority of the vets still inside the Strip.
The negotiations have been complicated by Iran's influence. This week, American officials reported that Tehran's Revolutionary Guard tried to dissuade a Hamas delegation from taking up the disarmament terms around the funeral of the late Iranian supreme leader, but that the group persisted despite the fact that Iranian support was becoming “insufficient.” That's also a small factoid to note a movement that used to take its counsel when it went to Tehran now seems willing to ignore its advice when it's life hangs in the balance.
But who governs the Gaza Strip after the guns stop has yet to be determined. In a blunt message to the Palestinian Authority, Washington has said it expects the West Bank to undergo reform, but not to receive an automatic seat in Gaza, even as its own officials admit the PA is barely able to run. Meanwhile, U.S. ties with one of the PA's most important figures, the exiled former Gaza security chief Mohammed Dahlan, remain active on the sidelines, via Jared Kushner's line something that will not please the PA leadership in Ramallah.
What rings out of all this is a peace process that is parallel and yet has yet to be made to converge: a diplomatic time frame measured in the length of several weeks; a security and disarmament time frame measured in the better part of a year; a reconstruction bill measured in the tens of billions of dollars, which nobody has quite gotten a handle on how to pay. In the next 14 days, it will be obvious whether Washington can bring its closest ally to the level of pressure it had promised to apply or whether the fragile calm in Gaza will simply fade away just as it has done in all past efforts at this conflict's end.








