Iran's navy's Revolutionary Guards unit on Sunday claimed to have captured an American undersea vehicle in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC claimed to have conducted a "coordinated intelligence and electronic warfare operation" to identify the machine, which it called "REMUS 600" and gave to military experts for its data. The label had been turned over within hours. The "catch," he wrote, was an IRGC spokesman, was actually an Mk 18 Mod 2 Kingfish, an autonomous vehicle equipped with sonar and precision navigation, worth of several million dollars.

Washington responded promptly and succinctly. The US maintains a "positive control" over all its operational drone assets, and the assertion "clearly desperate," CENTCOM spokesman Captain Tim Hawkins told Al Jazeera.

An apparent contradiction between REMUS 600 and Kingfish is not a real one. Tehran may be just polishing up its description for the Navy's Kingfish which is generally thought to be an iteration of the REMUS family. It also doesn't prove anything about what was captured. Neither side has released an image, serial number or footage of the recovery to outsiders to verify.

The denial itself is just as important as the wording of the denial. Hawkins mentioned “operational” assets, which allows for a lost asset, a retired asset, a leased asset and a partner navy. And it doesn't address the earlier Iranian claim. But the IRGC on Tuesday claimed it had captured an Anduril-produced Dive-LD close to the entrance of the strait, and there has been no official U.S. reaction to that. It is interesting that two in a week, one responded, one not.

Incidents such as these are commonplace as part of information warfare, and are small, inexpensive and easily unconfirmed. A few million dollars real or hypothetical can make a day of news, provide a domestic audience a "trophy", and cause the other side to respond, or come across as evasive. Iran benefits from being thought of. Washington benefits from being unperturbed. Between two interested parties, ordinary readers (and the traders who set prices on tankers and crude) are left in a quandary.

The timing explains what has happened. The war started on Feb. 28 with attacks by the USA and Israel against Iran. The strait has been the main chip in negotiations ever since, transporting about one-fifth of the world's oil prior to the fighting. Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, said on Friday that it could be reopened within seven days and the nuclear talks resumed if Washington stops "acts of aggression" against Iran, removes its naval blockade and releases Iranian assets. That offer was rejected by President Trump on Saturday, who said that Iran had made a proposal and he had turned it down. He has told aides he'll start bombing again after the November midterm elections, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Talk on both sides has become as hard as nails. The war is not yet finished and is at a 'critical and decisive stage,' Iranian top army commander Major General Amir Hatami said. From the U.S. side, former Middle East envoy Morgan Ortagus said Tehran's leadership is "hanging by a thread" under the blockade. Oil is pouring through the strait at record rates, Trump said, and a U.S. official told NBC that almost 40 million barrels has flowed through the waterway in the last 48 hours.

The shipping data has a more conservative narrative. The number of transits between September 21 and 27 was 132, as against 116 the previous week, according to MarineTraffic. Prior to the war, the crossings were approximately 130 per day. My calculations: Traffic is at about 1/7 of normal, faring better than last week, but not quite what Washington says is "open for business.

The best evidence of all this is oil prices. Brent closed at $108.48 a barrel, up 4% and the highest since September 15, while WTI closed at $96.16. Friday, Brent settled at $104.32, and is more than 71% up this year. In the pre-war period it was around $73 and early April's ceasefire brought the biggest one-day drop since the early 1991 Gulf War, but it was only pulled down to about $95. Since then, all of the ceasefire headlines have been washed away and the price has risen.

The agony extends beyond the Gulf. The Kospi index in South Korea tumbled 2.70 percent and the Nikkei marker in Japan dipped 0.73 percent on Monday. Both of these economies are almost completely dependent on imports of crude oil and India is in the same situation. Japan's services producer prices climbed 3.7% a year higher, the largest increase in over two years, and the Bank of Japan is considering accelerating its rate increases. Those central banks that had assumed that inflation was slowing are now experiencing a “shock of energy”, which they cannot influence using monetary policy.

Well, what does that leave out? The analysts at ING see a temporary deal to open the Straits as a possibility, but a real settlement as another, with their primary scenario being a limbo. That seems right. Washington's hope is that time and the blockade will win out. Tehran feels the straight and the world's reliance on it is on its side. Each side has an interest in exaggerating the gains and minimizing the losses.