A statement issued in the press room of Delhi, made this week, has gone a long way from capital to capital, and for a very good reason. Poland's Deputy Foreign Minister Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski revealed to reporters that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had personally dissuaded Vladimir Putin on the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine in the end of 2022, which is considered the most critical period in the war so far. However, Bartoszewski said that India could still use its influence to help bring the conflict to an end, as Modi was one of the few who can bring pressure to bear on Putin. He said it while speaking with Deputy Minister for Economic Development and Technology of Poland Michal Baranowski following the end of their Joint Economic Commission's meeting in Warsaw.

It was not a novel occurrence for students of the war, however, for the West to have been in the grip of fears that Moscow might be preparing to use a battlefield nuclear weapon after a series of setbacks around Kherson in the late 2022 episode that he referred to. What's new is that it is a Polish minister, who put India's diplomacy, and Modi specifically, in the center of the way this moment was defused, rather than crediting only Washington's warnings to Moscow at the time. Going further, Bartoszewski recalled that Putin always listens when Modi speaks, and that this connection is perhaps even strengthened by India's decades-long partnership with Russia dating back to the Soviet era. He added that Poland supports India's aspiration to become a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council and was honest that the council is unlikely to see any real change as it requires a consensus among the five countries that hold veto powers on the council and which don't agree on much.

The Polish minister wasn't alone in making this case in recent days. Other reports from New Delhi had similar messages, and one said he told participants that resistance to escalation was not the sole Indian stance, but that of China's leader Xi Jinping's government as well, and that the message was more likely to have landed in Moscow when it came from a country Russia didn't consider an adversary. That's a good example of a European Union member and a NATO ally that's taking a positive stance on Delhi's relationship with Moscow, instead of it being a headache to manage.

The timing matters. It was just last month when Putin himself extolled India as a great country, and rebutted what he described as pressure by the West on New Delhi's energy and defence investments in Russia. That would just harm international relations, he said, pointing out that it did not matter who is putting pressure on Modi a clear but indirect reference to Washington's tariff threats linked to New Delhi's refusal to buy Russian crude at a discounted rate saying that it was just as bad on Modi's side as it was on Washington's. Putin also attributed India's growth to "years of stability and continuity" in the policies of the current government, restating the “special and privileged” connection that both have frequently spoken about. In the background of Bartoszewski's talk are undermining signs that a European bloc too is interested in the balancing act of India and not just in the problem of Russia.

None of this is going on in isolation, without money. It was an economic meeting, at its heart, which is what the nuclear claim emerged from in the same meeting in New Delhi. Baranowski said bilateral trade between India and Poland has risen to about six billion dollars annually, an increase of 192% since 2013 when it was less than two billion dollars. He termed the two nations at a new phase and in the coming months, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will visit India to further strengthen the efforts made during this week, some of them suggesting the visit will take place in October. As the mother of all trade agreements, both ministers said, is the India-EU Free Trade Agreement, which was agreed in principle this year but is still on the works.It's the mother of all trade agreements, both ministers said, quoting the words of Modi and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made together. Trade officials' estimates put the cost of India's exports that could be captured by the pact at about 10-11 billion dollars, which may prove an attractive move given the tariff clashes this year between Washington and Indian exports.

The other thread of the visit is Defence. This is a technical but important step towards deeper military cooperation, which is now underway between Poland and India, with both sides seeking agreement on sharing classified data. Beyond cooperation in space, satellite, green energy, mining and information technology fields, Warsaw has indicated interest in helping India pursue its goal of producing defence equipment. A parliamentary friendship group assembled in Delhi earlier this year and a pending social security tie up on cross-border workers complete an unusually-wide agenda for a routine economic commission meeting.

The nuclear disclosure and the trade arithmetic are two sides of the same coin. A country which many in Washington see principally as a Russian oil importer is being called the "restraining voice of a live war" and a market to pursue "with the same vigor as Europe's". It is likely to be hard for historians to decide, for years, whether Modi's private talks with Putin in 2022 actually influenced the Kremlin's decision-making process no transcript of such a conversation has ever been released. However, its own narrative indicates the shift in a NATO-favoured government's calculations about India's status when it stated it outright, alongside plans to double trade.