Oil is trading near 86 dollars a barrel, US Central Command has just struck its seventh night straight on Iranian soil and Washington is quietly readying dozens of refueling tankers to return to Israeli tarmac in preparation for even more bombing to come. The June ceasefire has effectively failed, and the one that temporarily revived oil prices below 70 dollars and energised Asian markets has failed. All that remains is a grinding, almost daily exchange of gunfire over a part of the world's most economically vital stretch of water.

In the latest round, which was confirmed early Saturday by CENTCOM, infrastructure – particularly the maritime capabilities was specifically identified as a target for the first time in over a week. Strikes overnight in Hormozgan province strongly damaged two bridges and a road tunnel and resulted in the deaths of three people, Iranian state media reported. Coastal city of Jask was also affected with shut down of drinking water power plants, affecting nearby villages. At least 46 people have died and over 400 wounded in Tehran in recent days alone during the American campaign, says Tehran. Washington, meanwhile, has suffered 14 casualties and 427 injuries since the war started and 13 more have been reported this week.

Iran is not taking the punishment lying down. It's troops attacked ammunition depots and a headquarters building at Ali Al-Salem air base in Kuwait, as well as a power and desalination plant where Kuwait officials reported that a few of the generation units had been damaged. Fuel tanks were hit at Jordan's Al-Azraq base, he reported. Bahrain's Sheikh Isa Air Base was also attacked, and Iran's military announced it was one of the most important American logistics bases in the region. Saudi Arabia's civil defense issued early warnings for the first time in months, but there are no reports of damage there. Iran's navy also launched a cruise missile against what it described as a hostile American ship in the northern Indian Ocean, driving it away. Short-term curtailment of flights was observed at Kuwait's international airport.

But none of this is without an influence from the global economy and that is where it's getting lost in the nightly casualty figures. The Strait of Hormuz handles about one-fifth of the world's oil traffic each day and the statistics bear out the war story: before the war, the number of vessels crossing the strait was between 18 and 22 per day; now it's as low as six per 12 hours. As the hostilities intensify, benchmark crude rises by mid-single digits within hours and as diplomats broach ceasefire, it dips just as quickly. Since the first war broke out in the high 60s of February, the price has risen and fallen from the highest point reached near 96 dollars when there was a threat of another war in the late summer, down to the high 60s by the time of the June memorandum of understanding and back up to the mid-to-high 80s as that truce begins to unravel. The International Monetary Fund has already slashed its global growth forecast for this year to 3 percent from 3.5 percent and explicitly mentioned the danger of a renewed Middle East war, saying it could keep commodity markets volatile, disrupt supply chains and drive prices high enough to impact the rest of the world.

All of these pivots have been felt at Wall Street. The Dow lost almost 600 points on the day the earlier truce was announced by Trump to be dead, and other indicators sank more as fighting expanded to include attacks on military bases in the Gulf. Now energy traders watch every bit of CENTCOM language as a new price signal, and analysts who cover the region have been sharp on the vagueness in the original agreement regarding who really controls shipping through the strait which is what made it fall apart. Iran remains adamant it has the right to control the movement of ships and on what terms; the United States and most its Gulf allies have rejected this outright, and it is the unresolved dispute that underlies all the others.

This is the first time since a previous flare-up that Washington seems to be preparing for something on this scale next. Given the plausibility of a more aggressive and repeated air attack, the return of the refueling aircraft to Israeli bases makes sense, American officials told reporters and the prospect of further escalation is being seriously considered in the next few days. The White House also has refused to rule out a ground assault on Iran's coastline or islands, which would constitute a real escalation of the air and sea warfare that has been waged thus far. Meanwhile, Iran is said to have instructed its regional allies, such as Hezbollah, to brace for a full-blown war, which could mean that Israel, which has remained a formal nonplayer in this conflict despite hosting American tankers, could be directly involved in it. A modest but significant indication of the extent to which officials are taking the escalation risk is a new travel warning issued Friday night by the US Embassy in Jerusalem for Americans to be wary of traveling to northern Israel, Gaza and the Egyptian border.

There is no ceasefire on the table at the moment, no clear diplomatic exit and a global economy that has suffered four months of price shocks and is poised to deal with whatever lies ahead. The war didn't end in June. It only paused.