In the Oval Office on Thursday, Donald Trump gave reporters a familiar assurance: A deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was close, perhaps even imminent. By now, it's been proven to be a dead issue that's more of a joke in Middle East diplomatic circles. Trump scrapped a planned bombing campaign against Iranian energy infrastructure on Saturday, saying mediators have promised him that an agreement is imminent, just a few hours away. He said the paperwork will be signed by Tuesday on Monday. Aides extended that deadline to Wednesday or Thursday on Tuesday. By Thursday afternoon, the president was once again back to “it could be soon” the fourth time in weeks (and years) that a deadline has slipped past without ever being met.

Iran's top negotiator finally voiced warning. In a public post, lead interlocutor in the Hormuz talks, and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, ridiculed the cycle in a style that seemed to be a parody of what he termed “theater diplomacy.” He challenged Washington with its talk and false promises when it would rather give Tehran something solid, and Tehran would not need more of that show. It was an unusually pointed insult from a high-ranking Iranian official at a time when Trump's trustworthiness on the question of when Iran was seeking to atomize its nuclear weapons was already in question.

The conflict over Hormuz isn't superficial. The strait is used by about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil and about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas imports and has been effectively closed or very severely disrupted since the US and Israel initiated their war on Iran at the end of February. Wood Mackenzie said a prolonged shutdown is the worst energy supply shock in decades, adding that more than 11 million barrels a day are still being curtailed from the Gulf and the price of Brent crude could rise to $200 a barrel in a worst case scenario before easing back to $65 when a settlement is reached. Goldman Sachs has also separately warned that a $100 average price for Brent would push both the US and the EU into recession this year. The markets have already seen a few significant rallies since the closure has been announced, and each time a news release comes out from Washington when nothing has been announced, it's just a reset on the uncertainty.

But the officials briefed on the talks are talking about more than just a peace. Iran and Oman are negotiating a 60-day deal to allow ships to pass through the strait via a channel under Iranian control and out via a channel under the control of Oman, neither of which will collect tolls during that period, but which might be extended upon mutual agreement. It's less than Tehran originally envisioned and perhaps because of the shifting ground since the war started, more than because Iran failed to win outright but it gives Iran a measure of operational control that it didn't have before the strikes and blockade started five months ago. Notably, Iran's own version of the situation is less rosy than Trump's: Tehran said Wednesday that there have been no direct talks with the United States in recent days certainly, not a settlement with Washington, but the bilateral track with Oman that is close to completion.

Under the diplomatic stage is a more difficult question for the U.S. side: depleted stocks. On Friday, Trump publicly denied he's getting on Hegseth's nerves for US inventories of missiles capable of intercepting Russian ballistic warheads are dwindling, while several outlets reported a heated confrontation the week prior at Camp David. The numbers tell you about the tension. Independent estimates estimate the number of US Patriot interceptor before the war at about 2330, by the end of July, the number stood from 759 to 827. The number of interceptors released fell from around 452 to 234-278 during the same time. Officials say the Army's supply of ATACMS tactical missiles, which have also been provided to Ukraine, has been "substantially depleted. The administration has sought Congress to approve more than $30 billion in additional money, and separate estimates of the total request now peg it closer to $67 billion once munitions orders are added and war costs are taken into account a figure that will take manufacturers a little more than two years to fill even if they fast-track contracts, including a new $3 billion contract with Northrop Grumman announced today.

That the fiscal and industrial stress is important because it affects the balance of leverage on both sides of the table. The US President and his administration that claim there is an unlimited number of missiles in their possession, while the Pentagon is secretly allocating some of the THAAD interceptors according to threat trajectory negotiate from a weaker hand than they think.Tehran's negotiators must know that a US President who says his country has an unlimited number of missiles, while the Pentagon ration them quietly, is a weaker negotiator than he thinks. The wider region is adjusting too: Saudi Arabia is preparing for “coordinated attacks” against it from Iranian-backed militias both to the north and south, and Riyadh will sign a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan “to counter the kind of protracted instability” that has been fuelled by an unresolved Hormuz standoff. Meanwhile, Gulf oil producers are already turning a blind eye to the strait altogether, and accelerating alternative export paths, not sitting on Washington's next deadline.

All this does not mean that there is no deal coming. It probably does, and it is not just in this form, because the economic hurt that a closed strait continues to dole out is considerable to both producers and consumers. But the disconnect now between Trump's announced timeline and the realities of the talks has become a story in itself one Iran's negotiators are now telling to the world and one that other countries, both allies and enemies, are paying close attention to for whatever clues it may provide about Washington's resolve to stay in a war it signed up for with quick and decisive victories in mind.