Donald Trump is once again promising that the war is coming to a close, but it's been 6 months of a war that was supposed to be short, decisive and containable. In an interview this week, the U.S. president assured Israel that the current conflict with Iran won't be a cause for concern as it will "wind down soon" and he himself will "take care of it. It's a refrain he's been repeating in different forms since the first American and Israeli aircraft targeted Iranian targets in late February, when a new level of violence began.

This week's flare up was a repeat of the past. On Tuesday, American forces struck Iranian bases near the Strait of Hormuz in response to "new Iranian attempts to mine ships in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz," Trump said. According to Tehran, four persons, including two children, were killed in the southern city of Sirik during a wedding party and the strike was a war crime.

Within hours, Iran's Revolutionary Guard fired missiles and drones at American bases scattered across Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq and the UAE. US Central Command has rejected the allegations of targeting civilians, and in an implicit challenge, stated that American forces "never target civilians, unlike the Revolutionary Guards. It was the roughest and hottest exchange since July and it was coming at a time when the Gulf capitals were privately hoping that it was over.

While all of this was going on, Trump did manage to permute the name of the Strait of Hormuz to "Trump Straight. “Now that we control it, should it be re-named TRUMP STRAIT??” he posted, noting that it will be “hotter than ever before,” a reference to his own branding spree which has already seen his name on the Kennedy Center, a peace institute and an immigration “Gold Card.” At least after an afternoon, the White House took the suggestion to heart and released a map of the Gulf with the strait renamed. By the following day Trump was referring to it as “just throwing it out there,” a phrase that has now entered the lexicon of Trump government.

The renaming incident would not have been such a momentous affair if the claim had not been so significant. For weeks, Trump has been telling reporters that the Strait of Hormuz is "under American control" and that oil is moving "normally" through it. Shipping information says otherwise. The daily flow of ships passing through the strait which was used in pre-war days for about 20 per cent of the world's seaborne oil now runs at a mere handful, many of which are flagged to countries with ties to China.

The US Energy Information Administration predicts the Gulf will not hit pre-war production levels until early 2027. Nearly $65 a barrel before the first strikes came in February, Brent crude jumped above $118 in March, dropped into the middle of the $70s by early summer, and has since rallied steadily, reaching the low $90s this week as the renewed clashes took place. That's according to the IMF's own modeling, which indicates that for each 10 percent increase in oil prices, inflation rises by about 0.4 percentage points and the global economy contracts by 0.15 percentage point, which means it has real ramifications for consumers in Lagos to those in Los Angeles.

Those costs are coming at an opportune time for the president's party as they are hitting American voters. Polling numbers indicate that Republican prospects are getting stronger in parts of the country where diesel is selling for more than $5.60 a gallon, and regular gasoline more than $4 a gallon, as pocketbook frustration plays a major role in the November midterm elections. In that context the timing of the Trump Strait proposal is less one thing than another. Some critics, such as Senator Bernie Sanders, who harshly criticized Trump on social media for renaming the Strait of Hormuz after himself, view the act as a distraction tactic to divert attention from the battle that has proven much more difficult to finish than anticipated by Trump.

Israel, meanwhile, has not been much involved in this latest round of trade, which contrasts with its earlier involvement, when it was leading the way with Washington. Israel remains prepared to retaliate "with great force" if Iran chooses to attack Israeli territory during the forthcoming Jewish holiday season, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Wednesday, echoing a warning that Jerusalem is heeding as it awaits the next escalation of Iranian attacks against Israeli forces. Iran, interestingly, has been punching only at bases of the United States and not at Israel itself, something that has been the case for months, and that regional analysts interpreted as Tehran seeking to avoid a second front it can't handle.

What comes out of six months of this war is a disconnect between the talking points from Washington and the energy markets and shipping trackers. American authorities have always insisted that the strait is open and under control, but commercial shipping information disputes this. While Trump has repeatedly said that he expects a quick solution, the pace of strikes and Iran's ability to target five countries on a single night indicate otherwise. The more relevant figure for Gulf economies, those who are paying bigger energy bills as European importers or Asian manufacturers, is not whether the strait will be renamed but how many tankers will be passing through it a day, and six months in, the war has yet to be done any favour by the end that its architect has promised.