Separate rooms where the two sides pass messages between themselves the format that has led to any paper at all is where they are now once more, seven months after the war began with American and Israeli attacks on Iran in late February. Both countries held talks with intermediaries on Monday. The American contact was confirmed by President Donald Trump to reporters at the White House without providing any detail. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is still in New York at the UN General Assembly, said he had been in touch with mediators from Qatar, and that he was hoping for a formal response from the United States by Tuesday.

On the table is the paper Iran first floated on the sidelines of the Assembly last week, which is called the seven-day plan. It demands a cessation of the war in Iran and Lebanon and the release of billions of dollars of frozen assets, easing of oil sanctions and the lifting of the American blockade on Iranian ports. In return Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks within a week. Anyone familiar with the process told Reuters that any further discussion will be about an updated version of that text.

On Saturday, Trump stated it was a rejection of the proposal, as Iran's economy is collapsing and they want a quick deal. On Sunday, Araghchi responded that he had received no formal rejection via the mediators. Both of these men are talking about a fortnight, but they're using different language and both may be correct. A U.S. official told regional news the indirect talks have been "positive and constructive" but the nuclear issue must be resolved before anything gets signed off. Trump also dismissed claims that he had promised sanctions relief and sanctions freezing if Iran would make nuclear concessions.

There is no beginning point for anyone in this story. In April and June, Washington and Tehran signed ceasefires, which were both broken. The battle started again in July. Several hours of talks last Tuesday on the sidelines of the UN, in which U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner participated, were described by Witkoff as "constructive and promising," with no joint statement issued. Trump told the Assembly in a preliminary statement that he would make a "deal right after the election" (the November midterms), instead of an "Eureka" moment. Some are reading that as an indication that Washington doesn't feel there is much reason to close before the voters turn up and that Iran, hemmed in by inflation and a blockade, is being invited to wait.

This is the part of the market that can't be spun, the market. According to Kpler's tracking, on Saturday, crude moving through Hormuz was moving at around 10.6 million bpd, down from about 17.1 million bpd prior to the war. This is approximately 38% below normal. The overall level of middle east crude exports, however, has slowly begun to return to near pre-war levels as Saudi Arabia resumed its shipments on the East-West pipeline and through Oman. Last week it was reported at over $102 at points, and it is up more than 60 percent for the year. Goldman Sachs earlier this month estimated that it could be as much as $120 if conflicts over tankers and energy infrastructure escalate. The diplomats have not caught up as quickly as Asia, though: September was the highest monthly level since the fighting began as Asia's refiners pulled in 23.96 million bpd.

That adaptation is not cheap and the costs are spread unevenly. Indian refiners have stepped up LPG production by nearly 20 percent, a measure to safeguard cooking-gas supply, but not import bills, as imports through the Hormuz have been curtailed. Southeast Asian utilities are still moving forward with gas projects despite the LNG shock, and in the United States, the administration is contemplating another diesel export ban that Kpler projects would leave approximately 1.2 million b/d stuck at home and put pressure on storage in the Gulf Coast. A conflict over just one thin strip of water is reshaping fuel policy on four continents.

The manoeuvre logic on both sides can be easily sketched. Washington thinks the blockade and Iran's currency debacle provide it with time and wants uranium concessions before it releases cash. With its past two truces being unsuccessful, Tehran is not about to give up its last leverage the Hormuz port for promises. They are both rational, and this, along with the fact that there has been no signature in all rounds played so far, explains the goodwill that has pervaded this round and every one before it. Mediators are the Qataris, Omani and Pakistanis who maintain the channel but who cannot provide the crucial element, sequencing who goes first on the blockade, and who goes first on the enriched uranium.

The practical reading is conservative in countries without a seat. Even India, Japan and South Korea, as importers, cannot plan around a deal that may arrive after November, nor can they plan around another flare-up. The prudent way is to continue to spread out the supply, continue talking with both capitals and quietly build up inventory. The lowest cost energy stimulus, to the world economy, would be a negotiated end to this war.