After six months of a war that has rocked the Persian Gulf, Donald Trump has come to a conclusion: to play it cool, a la "wait and see," with a stopwatch. The American president, who spoke with Axios and Channel 12 news on Sunday, in a brief phone call, described his current strategy with Iran as “low-keying it,” and “semi-negotiating” with it while its faltering economy does the rest, which airstrikes and naval blockades have yet to complete. We are watching Iran and its massive inflation, which has so far resulted in a lack of money on their part," Trump said. It will work out, it always works out, it's like chess, he said.

The comments were taken at a vulnerable time. Iran raised its ante over the weekend, dispatching a new list of demands for any agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage that transports about one-fifth of the world's seaborne oil, and which Tehran essentially closed after the war started on Feb. 28. Since then, Iran's foreign ministry has denied that any direct negotiation is underway, saying it is only sending messages through Omani middlemen and that Washington has to 'correct its behavior' and accountability for what Tehran sees as violations of the ceasefire framework agreed in June before any waterway is reopened.

Even the visible differences between the two sides' public demeanors are instructive. The mediators had thought that a preliminary deal with the U.S., Iran and Oman was imminent, just days before, with an announcement scheduled for Wednesday. But Trump had threatened to send in what he called “strong military action” weeks earlier, only to back down, claiming a “breakthrough.” The pattern of the whiplash is back again: threat, thaw, stall, repeat. It was on Sunday that there was no threat at all. Trump hasn't complained that Tehran is dragging the negotiations out. He didn't make mention of bridges or power plants, which were targets he has pledged to take out for every Iranian tanker hit. Rather, he took a wait and see stance, hoping that the results of the numbers that will emerge from Iran's own economy will have greater impact than another round of strikes.

Those numbers are truly tough. The rial has depreciated by 45 to 60 percent over the last year against the dollar (using various market rates) and has fallen to around 1.4 million rials to a dollar on the open market, which is unheard of even by the standards of a currency that has been falling for decades. The International Monetary Fund is predicting Iran will experience GDP growth of less than six percent this year, with inflation nearing 69 percent, the highest since the Second World War. Independent Iranian economists have upped the ante, suggesting that price increases may exceed 80 per cent this year far too much for a people already weakened by war and sanctions to stomach without further violence. This summer, Iran's central bank acknowledged as much in an unprecedented frank admission from a government that has been barring GDP data from being published. The naval blockade imposed by Washington on Iranian shipping, citing that it has been the source of the misery for the Iranian regime to the extent that the regime is unable to pay its soldiers, is cited by officials.The officials cited by Axios said that the naval blockade imposed by Washington on Iranian shipping has added to that misery to the point it is making it hard for the Iranian regime to pay its soldiers.

There's a mirror image happening in Washington, too, and it's one reason why Trump can be patient. Crude prices surged past $100 a barrel when Iran first shut off Hormuz, directly contributing to a surge in American inflation readings and bringing gasoline prices over $4 a gallon nationwide. The pain of the war have eased a bit for American consumers, with prices now back up to about $75 a barrel a development Trump noted himself, even as the White House's own economic advisers admit the costs of energy are still high relative to pre-February levels. At its heart, this is an economic war, not an economic battle, and at risk of being prolonged it could drive up U.S. inflation to 4 percent for the year and drag down global growth to below 3 percent, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said.

It is Iran's own leadership's dysfunction that provides the strategy with some bite, according to American officials, who are convinced that Trump can wait. A faction in support of President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to reach a compromise to stave off economic collapse, while another group, led by Ahmad Vahidi, commander of the Revolutionary Guards, is against any compromise with Washington. Both sides say they have the support of Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who assumed the mantle of his father after he was killed in the opening of the war and has not been seen publicly since, who is believed to be guiding the state from his hiding place. His office said Sunday it had recently met with Pezeshkian to discuss "the country's issues and problems," with no evidence provided, and following his earlier in the week announcement that he was "very difficult to reach.

To a White House whose job is to watch a rift from the outside, the obvious advantage of maintaining pressure on the economy while also avoiding another round of fighting is obvious: A regime that is caught up in succession politics and can't afford to pay its soldiers is, in Washington's view, more apt to bend at the bargaining table than a régime that has been inspired by a new act of war. But, whether that bet will come through before Iran's people reach an "end-of-the-rope" moment of their own is the question no one can answer yet.