Today, the Middle East has hit a strange new state of affairs: a months long shooting war is now underway between the United States and Iran that shows no sign of abating one that quietly is changing the face of global energy markets, American domestic politics and the security paradigm of the whole of the Gulf region and that has been the reality for nearly three years since Hamas fighters broke through the Gaza fence and ignited a domino effect across the Middle East.

The most recent blow has come unexpectedly; Iranian troops attacked Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, where American squadrons have rotated since the war began. An A-10 Thunderbolt suffered a wing and 8 F-15s were damaged slightly but returned to service, the Times of Israel reported. It's the latest in a series of summits dating back to the summer that Jordan's al-Azraq and Muwaffaq Salti bases have been hit over and over since the outbreak of the war in June, with each camp issuing conflicting reports from Tehran, which are followed with warranted delay and hesitation from Washington.

The sentiment not the damage is what makes this week's episode noteworthy; it's the Times of Israel's quoting of top White House advisers, including Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom indicated the Iran fight might last through the rest of Trump's term, past the 2029 inauguration. It is a bold concession from an administration which in the early months of this war had vowed a quick and decisive campaign. In the public face of the White House, the answer was defiant, with the president claiming that he has "crippled" Iran's military and economy with the "most powerful naval blockade in history," but not challenging the content of the warning itself.

This is important because the “field politics” and the “succession politics” of the Republican Party are now inextricably intertwined. Former Marine Vance, who has voiced deep suspicion of open-ended foreign entanglements, and Rubio, who has been a prime booster for the administration's hawkish agenda, are gaining a growing reputation as contenders for Trump and the outcome of the Iran war could affect who ends up inheriting the MAGA coalition in 2028. The approval numbers for Trump have already been affected, dropping to some of his lowest ratings in his second term as president as voters are growing weary of the war and higher gas prices, despite what they were promised on the campaign trail.

The consequences of the economic blow is what normal folks everywhere are feeling. Brent crude is gaining toward six-week highs, trading at $97.50 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate has moved to just over $92 a barrel, both of which have risen about 8 to 10 percent in the past week since the U.S. and Iran started bartering strikes on military bases instead of tankers.

The U.S. military took down three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend, one of which was near Kharg Island, Iran's main export terminal, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard says that it attacked vessels crossing waters that it now considers to be restricted. As many as 10 commercial vessels a day are now willing to pass through the strait, which historically has been the route for some 20% of the world's oil, according to shipping-intelligence companies monitoring it, which say ships have taken to their lowest number since May.

The more alarmist interpretations have been disputed by energy officials, who say that energy flows adjusted for bypass routes are actually closer to pre-war levels than would be indicated by the numbers of tankers. The skeptics, however, have conceded that the figures are confusing and that the premium incorporated into prices is a reality.

Overlaid on the military and economic narrative is a diplomatic process that has been unfolding for months that has just reached a climax this week: the Board of Directors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) voted to refer Iran to the United Nations Security Council for failure to meet its nuclear safeguards requirements, for the first time in 20 years.

The transfer comes after over a year of Iran's rejection of permission for inspectors to come back into nuclear sites hit by Israeli and U.S. bombs, which prevented the agency from verifying the state of a uranium stockpile enriched to nearly weapons-grade purity prior to the attacks. As Russia and China have veto power on the Security Council, the referral would not lead to binding punitive action it is a gesture rather than a tool; a means of formally documenting the failure to comply, not of forcing compliance.

In Israel, all this takes place in the context of their upcoming general elections. This week's polling reflected the country's political landscape unchanged since parties had finalized their slates for the vote on Oct. 27, with neither the pro- nor anti-Netanyahu factions able to claim the 61 seats needed to form a government alone, and Arab parties once again weighing in as the balance neither side can afford to ignore.

Nowadays, Israeli voters have a strange choice in choosing leaders as their government seeks their trust to continue, they have to deal with a British trade ban on settlement goods, a Hamas statement that an Israelis killed in a Gaza strike took place during a period of Shalit-deals and a growing war across the border, from which they are watching but are not yet a party.