This week, with the blunt certainty that has become his signature, Donald Trump resolved a manufactured controversy. The Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, "will not be arrested, in any way, shape, or form, while in the United States of America," the American president declared on Truth Social. The claim was targeting New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, whose team has been proactively brokering the possibility of taking action against the International Criminal Court's warrant for Israel's prime minister when he arrives in Manhattan this September for the UN General Assembly.

Take out the noise, and it's a legal non-starter, made into a political flashpoint. The United States has never signed the Rome Statute that established the ICC, and never accepts jurisdiction over its citizens or allies. On top of that, the 2002 American Service-Members' Protection Act explicitly prohibits the cooperation of state and local governments with the tribunal, and an additional federal law punishing harassment and detention of visiting foreign heads of state. Then there are at least three independent legal walls between the wrists of a New York mayor and any Israeli prime minister, thanks to the UN Headquarters Agreement, which provides diplomatic protection to leaders when they attend General Assembly sessions. Mamdani has never denied this. When the New York Times asked if the U.S. was not a member of the ICC, he replied that it was not and that what he could do "whatever the law allows me to do in New York City, that's what we will do" a statement that does nothing to make a commitment while keeping the story alive.

It isn't a question of legal jeopardy, it's a story. Mamdani, however, advanced his candidacy as a candidate of the moral high ground a position he promised to take on when he was elected to the office by pledging to uphold the ICC warrant, which he described as a war crime against Israel. If he walked that promise, he would lose the trust of the coalition that brought him to power as mayor, and he would start an unavoidable federal knock-off he can't afford. So he is in a middle ground "active conversation with our legal department," Netanyahu is a "war criminal" who "belongs in the Hague," and that the NYPD would do nothing if they found out about this type of incident. Netanyahu's office, in turn, has not looked down on the battle but instead has sought to deflect it, calling the ICC a "kangaroo court" and stating that Karim Khan, the prosecutor who was responsible for seeking the original warrant, was themselves, the subject of an internal investigation that found him guilty of serious misconduct in the face of sexual harassment allegations, a fact Israeli officials have cited as grounds for questioning the credibility of the case.

This was not the first development to bring Washington's whole demeanor on the court into question. In February, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on ICC officials because of the warrants issued for Netanyahu and then-defence minister Yoav Gallant, and last week it launched a more aggressive effort to completely undermine ICC function, calling it a threat to American sovereignty. Ambassador Mike Waltz to the UN, no less, was even more explicit in his condemnation of Mamdani's threat on his public blog, stating that it was “pure political theater.” Even Democrat John Fetterman, a Pennsylvania senator, dispensed with the notion on Fox News, telling Mamdani to “stick to the problems in your own country” rather than to international law, which Fetterman has no authority to uphold.

It is not just about what you say, but also when you say it. Trump's remarks coincided with Israel being surrounded, but not directly involved, in the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran, which broke out following the failure of a ceasefire issued last April and an agreement reached last June, that broke over the last few days. In the context of those incidents, Trump's post credited Netanyahu for facing off against a regime that killed tens of thousands of Iranian protesters and “decades of attacks on American personnel.” It's a tactic that has been used before, and it allows Trump to portray all legal challenges against Netanyahu as attacks on a wartime ally, not a matter of jurisdiction.

But there's a more subdued economic background too that seldom gets the attention of the news articles on this battle. Despite the political tensions, the US and Israel continue to be close economic partners, with total US goods and services trade with Israel in 2025 estimated to be approximately $54.6 billion, with the US having a long-standing trade deficit of c. $7 billion, attributable to Israeli exports of electronics, precision instruments and pharmaceuticals. In New York City, at least, the mayor is actively courting the prime minister's ire while Israeli capital and technology companies flock to the area, several of them leasing space in shared offices in Chelsea over the past few months without fear of political backlash from the office of Mayor Bloomberg.

What comes out of all this isn't really a standoff, but a bit of political theatre. Mamdani can have the luxury of telling his constituents that they are angry over the Gaza conflict and that he sympathises with them, all without having to be called to account on a promise that the law would never allow to be binding on him. Trump and Netanyahu are able to play a progressive mayor as a buffoon threatening an ally in the middle of a war. Meanwhile, ICC is legally impotent on American ground, whether it is the mayor or any other occupant of City Hall times two.