Tamil Nadu's political landscape once again underwent a change on Tuesday. Speaker JCD Prabhakar received Ambasamudram MLA Esakki Subaya's resignation, which is the fourth in 48 hours from the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. The principal opposition's numbers have dropped from 47 to 43 seats in the 234-member House, which now sounds more like a mathematical move than a blood transfusion chart indicating a gradual bleed.

The drama that is going on in Chennai is not the usual defection drama. It's the systematic destruction of the party that just 18 months ago was described as the DMK's last chance to challenge it. The DMK-AIADMK equation which ruled Tamil Nadu for five decades is officially over now with the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (Tamil Nadu Awareness Congress) of Mr. D.M.K. in power under the leadership of Chief Minister Vijay and a rebel group within the AIADMK openly defecting.The morning's choreography

The House was in a ferment of activity in the Speaker's chamber at the opening of the day. Senior AIADMK leaders like whip Agri SS Krishnamurthy and Rajya Sabha MP IS Inbadurai walked in early with a written representation asking Prabhakar not to accept the resignations of the three MLAs who had quit a day earlier and joined TVK at a public event here. They argued this was a matter of procedure and the constitution. Proceedings of disqualification against the trio were already on and to accept their resignations would circumvent the anti-defection law and reward "horse trading" by the ruling establishment, the petitioners said.

Prabhakar heard it all, uttered a few words and, still, accepted the fourth resignation. Subaya took his typed letter, handwrote a handwritten version, and submitted it (after getting a rejection note that it failed to meet House rules). In a few minutes the Speaker removed it. When reporters questioned Prabhakar on whether he had gone out of his way for the rebels, he gave them the “that’s what we do” shrug that is typical of presiding officers in the political minefield. He was acting under the law and in his authority," he said. Letters in the format specified would be accepted. In addition, he stated that he had nothing else to say.

While technically correct, that was a very thin formulation and one that has been overgrown by a much wider institutional question which has been bugging more and more political watchers of similar developments in Karnataka, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh. Resignations by legislators who have been disqualified by Speaker's objections, when disqualification is already sought against them, prove to be a violation of the spirit of the Tenth Schedule, a constitutional firewall against defection. The legislator avoids the disqualification fine, has the opportunity to run for the seat again on a different symbol and the party that has elected him has time to sue while the political climate is already sour. In that sense, the Chennai episode on Tuesday is a textbook case of how a 50-year-old anti-defection regime is being quietly phased out via procedural acrobatics.

The crack in the AIADMK

The four defections were not a surprise. AIADMK has been divided in two from months. As per the party sources, out of the 47 MLAs they have after the 2021 elections, 27 would be in the stable hands of the general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami. The remaining 12 after 12 of them dropped out this week – are loyal to former ministers, C Ve Shanmugam and SP Velumani. All four the quitting MLAs are members of the Shanmugam-Velumani group and all the four had voted in favour of Vijay's government in the floor test on 13 May, which saw the TVK government getting 144 votes and 22 votes against.

The crux of this current crisis is that floor test. Palaniswami's group endured the spectacle, realising that it was a done deal but hoping the Speaker wouldn't “openly” pave the way for his own members to move on the months ahead. That theory has now been torn to shreds.Vijay's game-plan and Prashant Kishor's hand

One can't help but read this week's events in the context of the past eight months of choreography. Vijay was quick off the block after coming into power on 13th May. Prashant Kishor, who was called on as a special adviser prior to the election, was seen around the Chief Minister's office in Chennai till May. Party sources tell The Associated Press he has a short-term brief, which is twofold. The first is to turn the floor-test rebels into TVK legislators by fresh by-elections, which will ensure the rebels stay on the whistle for the long term. The second is to slowly remove the AIADMK organisational talent in the western and southern districts where Palaniswami's faction is strongest. Three MLAs who resigned on Monday Maragatham Kumaravel, P Sathyabama and S Jayakumar are said to be on the list to get TVK tickets for the by-elections. Subaya is likely to follow suit.

For Palaniswami, it's a two-front war, and both are not going his way. The tie-up he announced last year with the BJP was never an easy one in a state where for decades the saffron party has been depicted as an imposition from the north. His lieutenants, who included several former AIADMK big guns who jumped ship to Vijay's side last year, alleged Tuesday morning that TVK Revenue Minister KA Sengottaiyan was behind the defection in "underhand dealings". Within the hour, however, Sengottaiyan denied that on camera. The fact that this allegation is true or not, is immaterial as the optics of the AIADMK is terrible. A party which ruled Tamil Nadu continuously from 2011 to 2021 is at a loss how to react to an hostile takeover that it is unable to withstand, even Congress MP S Jothimani, who spoke against the “horse-trading” witnessed on Tuesday, is seen as the victim.

Why the markets and the bond desks are keeping an eye on

The political theater is significant due to the economic implications that come with it. Tamil Nadu is not Manipur and Goa. It has been the fastest growing state economy in India at 11.19 per cent in real terms in 2024-25 with GSDP of about 31 lakh crore rupees, which is the second largest in the country and for the first time in 14 years the state has grown at double-digit rate. In four years, merchandise exports have almost doubled to 52 billion dollars, FDI inflows have reached 3.68 billion dollars in 2024-25 and the budget sees nominal GSDP of 41 lakh crore rupees in 2026-27. A state that aims to become a trillion dollar economy by 2032 cannot sustain a prolonged period of political instability in which the government is formed based on micro-defections and Speaker's decisions.

Noise is already discounted by the investor community. In the interim, CREDAI Tamil Nadu, earlier this year, had reported with Knight Frank that the state would require investment worth Rs. 9.23 lakh crore to touch a GSDP of USD 2.6 trillion in 2047, with manufacturing alone projected to reach USD 374 billion. None of that capital comes without a clear line of sight who's running the state in 2031, 2036 and beyond. The Centre for Public Policy Research has separately made this observation: Financial space in Tamil Nadu is less than the welfare pledges made in the new political market. Those restrictions will be carried forward by a government that gets to power through a floor crossing and not by a fresh mandate and will have a thinner moral ground to stand on to make difficult choices on debt, on power tariffs, on land acquisition for the next round of industrial corridors.

The institutional damage

There's a more subdued and more disturbing narrative apart from the resignations and the political euphoria in Vijay's dressing room. Every time resignations are accepted by each Speaker from legislators who are under disqualification proceedings, the Tenth Schedule gets diminished. The answer is in the court but the higher judiciary in India has always been hesitant to re-examine the decisions of the presiding officer on procedural aspects. When writ petition is lodged, heard and disposed of, by-elections will have been held, oaths will have been taken, ministers sworn in. The AIADMK may win all the cases and yet lose every all-important seat.

This is the more fundamental issue that has been a point of thoughtful discussion from both sides of the aisle. A democratic system of government in which the legislators frequently "change sides" between elections, where the Speaker knows how to be procedurally correct but the spirit of the law is not, is a system where the voters choice is not much of one. With high political awareness, with long history of Dravidian self-respect, with disproportionately high contribution to national economy, Tamil Nadu deserves better than what is being witnessed at Fort St George.

What happens next

There are now five vacancies, including Tiruchirappalli where Vijay himself contested. By-elections are inevitable in the next six months and the AIADMK will have to chart out its strategies of contesting or boycotting or entering into a coalition with the BJP in the by-elections. All these are unattractive alternatives. Palaniswami's group will also have to formally oust the four defectors, and file fresh disqualification proceedings, and even ponder on knocking at the Supreme Court's door, while preparing to call an assembly election in 2031 when TVK begins as the incumbent.

The script is easier for Vijay as far as that is concerned. Holding the new MLAs, winning the by-elections, governing for five years and watching the AIADMK devour itself in court and on the streets! The decision in 2031 will be between an actor who has built a government in eighteen months and a Dravidian giant, who can barely recall what was state government before.

The fourth resignation was a blip on the news radar on any given day. It's not a small damage.