As they went looking for a fresh beginning with a film star's party in Tamil Nadu, the Congress did not just break a 55-year-old partnership, but blew up the last viable southern anchor of the national opposition and gave the BJP something it could not have purchased.

Fifty-five years is a long time in Indian politics. There have been quicker rises and falls of empires. The Congress-DMK combine, that came together in 1969 on the back of a similar suspicion of centralised power and a common enemy, the Congress (O), weathered Emergency, assassination, a hundred seat-sharing squabbles. It came to a sudden close in the very first week of May 2026 not due to a grand ideological debate, but because a film star swept 108 seats and Congress, which it had campaigned with for more than half a century, decided he was the better bet.

The election to the Tamil Nadu Assembly was indeed a tremorshaking event in any sense of the word. C. Joseph Vijay, an actor turned politician, founded Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) just two years before polling day, and it is the single largest party the first non-Dravidian outfit to break the DMK-AIADMK duopoly since the late 60s. That DMK with an incumbent chief minister M.K. Stalin secured 59 seats. Stalin's own seat of Kolathur was lost. Tamil Nadu saw its first hung assembly in the memory of people.

108

TVK seats · largest party single

59

DMK seats · down from 133 in 2021

47

AIADMK seats · lost opposition status.

5

If the Congress seats become kingmakers, then what would be the margin?

TVK was ten seats short of the 118 needed for a majority. Of those, the Congress which had contested as part of the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) secured five seats. Christians, who had been campaigning within the alliance, got a rare leverage because of the arithmetic of the hung assembly in Tamil Nadu which saw the oldest national party walk out of the alliance it had campaigned within.

This combination of TVK and the Tamil Nadu Congress will try to usher in a new chapter for Tamil Nadu people," said this.

The Indian Association of the Cultivators of India's Independence Tamil Nadu In-charge Girish Chodankar spoke the above, on May 7, 2026.

The statement was carefully worded. It cast the pivot as a constitutional obligation the people's verdict. However, the interpretation within the DMK and among a large and important part of the country's opposition was quite different. The DMK legislature party met and adopted a resolution accusing Congress of “major betrayal” as it had acted against the coalitions interest even during the campaign period and it was indulging in “political manoeuvres similar to BJP.” Most biting of all was that last line. If the DMK was being likened to the BJP by the oldest ally of the party, it was not just an insult, it was a proclamation that for years it had been making as it defined itself against the BJP style of transactional politics.

This is the ‘Seating Letter' heard in Parliament.

Within days, the break was formalized as a part of the institution. DMK parliamentary party leader Kanimozhi Karunanidhi sent a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla seeking separate seats for the DMK MPs, pointing out that the "changed political circumstances" necessitated such a move. The letter was extremely concise and to the point. There is no rhetoric, no long accusations just the cold formality of a party that has decided that it no longer wants to be seen sitting next to a former partner. In the parliamentary optics, such a letter can seldom be turned around. That's the political version of denying access to someone's key-card.

So the DMK turned a deaf ear to the bloc meeting summoned in New Delhi on June 8, thereby sending a message by its very absence. But on the same day, the party, through its spokesman T.K.S. Elangovan, said that it was formally no longer a part of the INDIA alliance. When it came to the decision, Elangovan's language was telling: He said several parties had already walked out of the bloc and that the DMK would henceforth take decisions on a case-by-case basis, through its own committees at the state level rather than through a process that was controlled by Delhi.

A timeline on how the fracture happened.

Oct 2024 — TVK launch

Vijay officially introduces Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam with DMK and BJP as his political and ideological opponents. The Congress members start contemplating whether TVK could be a better alliance partner in 2026.

Sept 2025 — Rahul's call to Vijay

A Vijay rally stampede kills 41 people in Karur, Rahul Gandhi calls Vijay to express condolences. DMK allies openly demand Gandhi's intervention in the alliance to keep it alive, interpreting the demand as a political signal.

In November 2025, Congress is split three ways.

Within the Congress, there are varying views in the state Tamil Nadu with one saying that the DMK's offer of seat must be accepted, while another says that 40-45 seats and cabinet positions must be considered, and a third openly talks about the possibility of a tie-up with TVK.

The Tamil Nadu state elections are set to occur in April 2026.

Votes counted. TVK wins 108 seats. DMK crashes to 59. Stalin falls from grace. The first ever hung assembly in Tamil Nadu. Congress win 5 seats just enough to tip the balance.

May 7–8, 2026 -The pivot

Congress gives full support to TVK to form the government. DMK adopts a resolution denouncing it as a "major betrayal. Kanimozhi sends a letter to Speaker of Lok Sabha for separate seating. Today marks the end of the 55-year partnership.

The Democratic Muslim League (DMK), which was part of the INDIA bloc, has left the bloc on June 8, 2026.

DMK is not to participate in the INDIA Alliance meeting in Delhi and has officially announced that it is out of the opposition bloc through its spokesperson. Tacitly indicates the possibility of an anti-BJP front in the future without Congress.

This is an overview of the economics of political instability.

There is much more to be said about the rupture that is seldom mentioned in the vast amounts of political commentary it has produced: Tamil Nadu is not only a large state. As per GSDP, it is the second largest economy state in India, where in the year 2025-26, it reached the level of ₹35.29 lakh crore, with a nominal growth rate of 13.16%, which is the highest in all states in India during the same period. FDI inflows grew from $2.17 billion in 2022-23 to $3.68 billion in 2024-25 with manufacturing alone increasing by more than 14%. The State aims to be a $1 trillion economy by 2031.

Tamil Nadu Five Year Trend of GSDP Growth Rate (%)

Data from Tamil Nadu Economic Survey 2025-26 by State Planning Commission. National average 7.4% in 2025–26.

This level of political uncertainty in a state of this economic importance is anything but an even occurrence for businesses or investors. The thumb rule for economists who monitor Tamil Nadu's investment climate is the rule of law and stability of governance. A minority government of the hangers, party of an actress turned politician and a Congress gang which has burnt the most important regional relationship to come to these shores does not, on paper, look like investable stability. The questions are not that TVK can't govern, but that there were a series of transitional risks at least, that markets tend to anticipate, in the way that the government was formed.

Data from Tamil Nadu Economic Survey 2025–26. TN became the 2nd in the country to get best ranking in NITI Aayog Export Preparedness Index.

The National Opposition's Southern Anchor Gone

But for now, forget the Tamil Nadu-centric drama and take a step back to the national picture. The DMK won 22 Lok Sabha seats fourth highest among all parties after Congress, Samajwadi Party and the Trinamool Congress. More importantly, the DMK brought the South. It was the bloc's only meaningful foothold in an area where Congress has been structurally weak for decades, the BJP has made almost no meaningful inroads and regional identity politics generally operate outside of north Indian narratives. The loss of the DMK does not just reduce the number of members in the bloc's membership but cuts off a limb that provided it with a geographic credibility.

Key Party Lok Sabha Seats (2024 Results) INDIA Bloc

Congress holds control of shrank bloc. The 22 seats of DMK are now out of the alliance.

The bloc meeting of INDIA held on June 8 in New Delhi was carried out involving Congress, Trinamool, Samajwadi Party, RJD and the Left parties. It came out with the usual rhetoric of unity and common purpose against the BJP. However, the DMK was missing, along with the AAP. That's two of the alliance's 10 biggest parties not in attendance at what was supposed to be a strategy session before Parliament. It was on that occasion that RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav was among those who had criticised the way Congress had dealt with Tamil Nadu situation, according to several reports from the meeting. The word betrayal was in the air in rooms Congress occupied, even within the INDIA bloc.

Recently, in a public gathering in Karnataka, PM Modi had said that the Congress had "backstabbed" and is a 'betrayer' of DMK,

The Week, June 1, 2026

There's a line there that needs to be read very carefully. Now, the BJP the very party against which the INDIA bloc was created was using the Congress-DMK split as its own political terminology. If your opponents acknowledge your allies' concerns as their talking points, you've got a serious problem.

Was Congress Right? A Harder Look

The Congress argument was that given that the results, it was their duty to support a TVK government the party had a mandate, and President's Rule would otherwise have given the BJP-appointed governor indirect control of Tamil Nadu. That is not a wholly unconvincing argument. Congress and secular parties would not have wanted to see Tamil Nadu under a central administration arrangement than a TVK minority government. This was a calculation made under genuine time pressure, say the party's defenders.

Another calculation over the long term is being made by part of Congress strategists, a demographic calculation. Congress, which won 48 of the 48 seats that went up for grabs in the Tamil Nadu assembly in 2006, had dwindled to 25 seats in 2021, the lowest it has ever got under the DMK alliance. The party suffered a reduction of seats at the table and a decrement of influence in a coalition it joined, at each election. The chatter which took place softly in Congress circles for more than a year leading up to the 2026 elections was that the party had to break away from its shadow in the Dravidian party if it were to have a future in the South. To those who played it, the TVK bet wasn't necessarily a betrayal, but rather an attempt at relevance.

The problem with this argument is that relevance doesn't come easily, nor does it come by burning down the party who gave you most of your Lok Sabha victories in the south over the last 20 years. In 2024, Congress secured victory in nine Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu. Almost all of those came on the strength of the DMK alliance. They would have a poor mathematical outlook otherwise. The TVK is a state party that does not have any Lok Sabha presence. From a parliamentary arithmetic point of view, it's a highly questionable trade that Congress is making in swapping what's proven to be its most effective national-level regional partnership for a state-level coalition with a newcomer.

The unspoken hypothesis is that no one wants to believe:

A pattern that has to be exposed but is uncomfortable to talk about is that the Congress leadership, and particularly its central machinery, avoids allowing regional relationships to deteriorate when it can control them, and seeks to make short-term decisions that are good for the party's internal management, but bad for the opposition project at large. Everyone of the DMK allies in the room interpreted Rahul's phone call to Vijay after the Karur stampede as a political message, even though all Congressmen present at the meeting claimed it was a courtesy call. The absence of an understanding of how it would be read is a reading-of-the-room issue at best, and a serious one at that, given senior leaders in Congress.

The Congress was split into three factions on the eve of the Tamil Nadu elections 2026 one to remain with DMK and accept whatever it got from them, one to use TVK as a leverage to get more from DMK and one to genuinely break. As the results came in, and the switch was possible, the third party won out. What this suggests is that the Congress central leadership those who might have stood up either went along with the change or were not effectively in control of it. Both alternatives are unappealing when proposing a national opposition.

Congress Assembly Seats in Tamilnadu (Under DMK Alliance)

Congress contested 48 seats in 2006; reduced to 25 in 2021. The shrinking seat share fuelled internal demands to explore alternatives.

What's Next for the DMK?

But the DMK does have options and leverage. The party has 22 Lok Sabha members, who in a house where the ruling NDA does not enjoy the two-thirds majority, could be a significant swing bloc. According to the June 2026 reports, Stalin had a private meeting with his son Udhayanidhi at Coorg with a senior BJP leader, where they discussed and other things, DMK's parliamentary strength vis-à-vis NDA. DMK sources have denied having any formal talks of alliance and the party has been cautious to indicate that it is still "secular and anti-BJP" in its ideology. However, the fact that the meeting took place and the party was not afraid to be seen in those rooms is an indicator that the DMK has now become a true independent variable in the national political sphere and not a faithful Congress party opposition.

Elangovan, who is the DMK spokesman, said the party would be closely monitoring the events in Delhi and would see if a “strong secular anti-BJP alliance” could be formed in future without Congress as the key player. It's a pretty specific formulation. It's the language of a party which hasn't lost faith in opposing the BJP, but has lost faith in opposing the BJP under the leadership of Congress.

The question of the nature of opposition architecture that India can afford is not merely of political interest but has real implications on the federal balance and the functioning of the country's democracy. Tamil Nadu has been one of the rare states, since the 1960s, to have strong autonomy and actively participates in national political affairs on its own terms. A state government politically wedged out from the national opposition and a ruling national centre, and whose very existence has been due to an actor's majority-less victory and a controversial Congress turnaround, is not necessarily at the best position to uphold the tradition at a time when it is most in need of protection.

It wasn't a conflicting policy or ideology that caused the 55-year alliance to come to an end. It perished because five assembly seats, a moment of political opportunity, and a leadership culture that rewards tactical flexibility and political expediency over strategic loyalty all coincided. What remains to be seen is whether the TVK government will prove to be a success or not, whether the economy of Tamil Nadu will continue to rise sharply despite the changing of the government or whether a new anti-BJP formation will come to be formed from the ashes of the INDIA bloc.

What is already obvious is this: the Congress didn't lose an ally. It failed to convince that it could be entrusted with the relationships that bind an opposition coalition together. That's not something to be taken lightly for a party aiming to spearhead a national campaign against a heavily organised ruling party.