The monsoon session of the Bengaluru assembly begins on Aug 13, and for the first time in months, the BJP and JD(S) are walking in the same shoes. The two sides reached an agreement with their coordination panel comprising Vijayendra, Ashoka and Pralhad Joshi on one side and those of Kumaraswamy on the other regarding the unpaid government salaries, shortage of fertiliser and the Bidadi township land row that has farmers in Ramanagara district in an uproar. There is a joint strategy meeting scheduled for Aug. 10, three days before the House convenes, which gives you an idea of how intentional this offensive is, not to happen by accident.

This is because the government they have to face has itself changed since the last time this type of coordinated effort was attempted. The power-sharing deal between Siddaramaiah and Karnataka's Congress party boss D.K. Shivakumar finally got a breather on June 3 when Shivakumar replaced the latter as chief minister after more than a year of speculation, denial and a carefully orchestrated photo-op of unity between the two. It has been a week since Shivakumar took over, and as new CMs do, he has been out on his polling turf in Kanakapura, berating the opposition and saying that neither the BJP nor the JD(S) can bring another D.K. Shivakumar to his backyard. Brazenly, the conversion has provided a new fish to bite on the hook for the opposition and, perhaps, a narrower one too as the former Siddaramaiah is left without the option of hiding behind his five years in power.

The BJP-JD(S) alliance has also suffered its own bruises. A Legislative Council Byelection in June became an unwelcome stress test of NDA unity when JD(S) leaders found to their irritation that the votes that were assured to them for the poll were not even fully realised in fact the party was disappointed that only two of the guaranteed transfers actually took place and there was some discomfort about cross voting from within the party. Kumaraswamy was reported to be visibly upset and even parts of the BJP, headed by leader of the opposition R. Ashoka, were said to have made efforts to placate him. That background makes it seem quite strange that the coordination committee was floated in July, not as a new idea, but rather as a means to show that the alliance is still working despite a public flop a damage control ploy disguised as strategy.

All of that doesn't change the numbers on the floor of the House and both sides know that. The Congress controls 140 of the 224 seats while the opposition has about 78, with the BJP enjoying 60 and the JD(S) 18 seats. Siddaramaiah himself had late last year termed the idea of a 'no-confidence motion' as 'useless exercise' for the very reason. What the BJP and JD(S) are doing is not a numbers game, but a narrative one and they were trying to inject eleven or twelve days of pressure, physical pressure on a government already in the middle of its term and under pressure on the economy.

The opposition's case gets to get a little material to work with when it comes to economic exposure. It is seen that the total liability of the state is estimated at almost Rs 8.24 lakh crore in the state budget documents, which is nearly a quarter of the state GDP for 2026-27. While borrowing approximately Rs 1.32 lakh crore gross for the year to sustain capital spending and welfare commitments, the fiscal deficit is expected to hit the 2.95 per cent of GSDP target, which is touching the cap of the fiscal responsibility law.The fiscal deficit is set to touch the 2.95 per cent of GSDP target, which is rubbing shoulders with the cap of fiscal responsibility law, as the government is borrowing Rs 1.32 lakh crore gross to sustain capital spending and welfare commitments. Economists analysing the numbers have so far come up with a debt burden that, though on the rise, is still in a manageable range for a state of Karnataka's revenues, which are projected to reach over Rs 33 lakh crore this year, growing at 7 percent. The BJP has been quick to use all delayed payment of salaries, all farmer protests and all complaints from contractors of the increasing commissions as proof of the encroachment of welfare on governance. Unluckily for the ministers, their alternative ideas to fix the city's roads and infrastructure have now found a new voice in Bengaluru's tech corridor: prominent leaders have been raising their voices in public, decrying the lack of attention by the government to their suggestions, a grievance that the BJP has been eager to use as evidence that the government has lost touch with the most productive part of the state.

If any of this translates to actual political damage is another matter. The opposition has reason to be happy with the experience of having initiated nineteen No-Confidence motions and held nineteen No-Confidence votes in Karnataka's legislative assembly since 1961 when it first had a chance to raise the issue, most of which have remained the same as the week they were called. This time, it's the timing: A new chief minister just starting to get his act together, an alliance attempting to demonstrate that it can overcome its own internal divisions and a fiscal picture that is sufficiently clear for both sides to cite figures at each other that they believe without question. The August session is not going to be a defining moment of the election to Karnataka. Instead, it will be up to them to prove their ability to create a much more substantive coordination committee than it will be a post-embarrassment press release and whether the JD(S) and BJP can keep the Congress off an economic story that is more sophisticated than either side wants to acknowledge.