Political comedy is a genre all on its own — and one that only the Congress party can manufacture — of sweeps and the loud noise for a week trying to claim it. On May 4, Kerala delivered a verdict of 102 out of 140 seats in the Assembly to the United Democratic Front which has swept the Left Democratic Front under the carpet for its five years of misgovernance and an effective opposition campaign. The Congress-led UDF campaigned on a strong anti-incumbency wave and won the election in the Kerala assembly by a huge margin, but is now watching its newfound popularity being washed away. The Leader of Opposition who held Pinarayi Vijayan's government to account for four relentless years, the one who most visibly fought the war, has found himself in an interesting situation that he has won the war but has yet to be handed the keys to the capital.

It should have been a dignifying passage, but has become a street show. An in-depth behind-the-scenes fight has been afoot, with various factions consulting within, lobbying off, streets rallied and social media campaigns launched. The three names swirling around the chief minister's chair: AICC general secretary K.C. Venugopal, Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan and senior veteran Ramesh Chennithala have their own supporting base of posters and counter-narratives. The more it continues, the more it will appear bad for a party that's supposed to be in government.

The maths of the factions is not as complicated as it gets. Venugopal is said to have the backing of more than 40 of the total 63 Congress MLAs which was said to be because of his superior influence in the selection of the candidates. It's a huge numerical edge in any vote situation for CLP. Numbers, however, don't tell the whole story. Satheesan is immensely popular with the public and his allies, such as Indian Union Muslim League and Kerala Congress (Joseph), are all singing his praises, while Chennithala is relying on the fact that he is the senior-most member of the Congress party. IUML and Kerala Congress (Joseph) combined, make up the significant portion of the UDF's 102-seat victory. It's not as if they are not fond of Satheesan, it's a message for the coalition management that any political operator knows.

What numbers in an MLA headcount cannot quite represent, is the case for Satheesan is based on the electoral legitimacy. Many in the Congress and outside feel that a well-organised campaign by party leader V.D. Satheesan brought about the party's victory, while several Congress functionaries state that the vote for Congress was also in favour of Satheesan. The high command cannot just file away the sentiment of Ernakulam and Kannur voters who were seen chanting slogans demanding “those who led the army, let them rule the land”. There is moral force to electoral mandates that is not present in caucus mathematics.

The case of Venugopal, on the other hand, is mainly organisational and transactional. The reason for Venugopal's tally of MLAs is viewed as his ability to control the selection of candidates. He is a Delhi heavyweight, an AICC general secretary and was instrumental in the build-up of the UDF's campaign machinery. The issue on the table for Congress is whether that organisational strength is best rewarded with the chief ministership — particularly when it would lead to a bypoll in Alappuzha, a place where BJP has done quite a bit of groundwork and an unnecessary contest could shame the party in the coming weeks after it grabbed power.

Backers of all three leaders have voiced their blessings for the decisions through demonstrations, posters and protests both in Kerala and Delhi, and it is reported that Rahul Gandhi had taken a lashing from senior leaders in Kerala during one of the important meetings in Delhi over their inability to curtail the supporters and ensure that no public expressions of rivalry occurred after the party's mammoth victory. The situation at 24 Akbar Road has been tense reportedly, as observers Mukul Wasnik and Ajay Maken filed their report to Kharge while the street drama of the same sort was allegedly enacted at their home. The high command has chided leaders for fostering public expressions of loyalty and stoking tensions that have hurt the party's standing and complicated the selection process, sources said.

What ensued was a show of forced unity: the three contenders standing together before the cameras, and calling for workers to stand down. Satheesan observed that the campaigns had caused the impression of disunity in the party and asked UDF workers to stop demonstrations and remove flex boards, Venugopal said the campaigns which promoted one leader and undermined another had to come to a close and Chennithala asked for the end of flex board war and social media campaigns. Some KPCC hoardings were observed being torn down by activists during Youth Congress. The cleanup — both literally and figuratively — was educational — it was a testament that the mess had gotten to the point that damage control, at the highest level, was necessary, and necessary now.

The party has faced a historic setback as it is unable even a week after May 4 to name a chief minister. The first time euphoric mood has changed to a mood of suspicion in Kerala as the people have already begun to mutter about the votes being thrown away. That loss of goodwill isn't just symbolic. Kerala is a state that needs governance agenda. Kerala, with an annual GSDP of ₹13.11 lakh crore and per capita income 60% above the national average of India, has a well developed economy and needs to be managed with due diligence and attention. In 2024-25, the fiscal deficit increased to 3.86% of the GSDP, compared with 3.02% in 2023-24, while the total revenue receipts increased by only 0.3%, due, amongst other things, to a fall of more than 6% in transfers from the Centre. Throw in CPI inflation of 9.05% in Kerala in September 2025, which is 9.5 times higher than the national average of 1.54%, and female unemployment of 11.6% compared with a national average of 3.2%, and whatever one has to do to make a difference in the governance arena is a daunting task.

As of June 2025, the cumulative FDI inflows into Kerala were ₹13,848 crore, while the total exports from the state were ₹42,343 crore in FY25. These numbers are respectable, but nothing to write home about for a state that boasts Kerala's human capital strengths. The new government will have to act quickly on the investment climate as the Invest Kerala Global Summit in early 2025 yielded investment commitments, including four projects valued at ₹1,211 crore inaugurated in May 2025 and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari's announcement of 31 new road-infrastructure projects worth ₹50,000 crore. But those promises need to be translated on the ground and a chief minister in place, not a succession battle in the hotel rooms in Delhi.

Delay is even more costly in the wider political environment. Part of the reason for Congress's victory in Kerala was that the Left's credibility as a government-making party had been shattered by the Vijayan government's last tenure, which had been blighted by financial scandals, curbing of dissent and an increasingly authoritarian approach, all of which had worn down voters. The UDF's unspoken message was 'competence, accountability, renewal. Each day of public jockeying is a day of undermining that pitch, and that's the story that the LDF is telling itself in its post-defeat period that Congress is incapable of governing because it cannot stop butting heads.

Also, what it does to the coalition's architecture if the decision is not made or is not satisfactory is an issue. IUML and Kerala Congress (Joseph) gave votes. They want their choice to weigh in. If they are overruled by the high command in their declared stance — their support for Satheesan — in the absence of proper coalition management, the feelings of resentment will simmer for five years of forming cabinets, posting officials, and making policies. Post-Independent coalition governance has a long history of just such a slow motion structural damage.

Reports said the high command has decided to take its time in making the decision as there is factionalism growing within the party, and the party has till May 23, a constitutional deadline for the new assembly to convene. That's right but it's wrong as a working principle. The order is just 10 days old. The Chair of the CM is not occupied. Each hour of doubt is adding to the public's mistrust that this government can function.

The Congress high command has faced such a conundrum in the past — the selection of the Karnataka 2023 chief minister was fraught with problems and was resolved in a messy manner. There is institutional recall. Whether the party has the political will to use it here, to stop using a governance transition as an inwards looking rewards exercise and to understand that the 102 seats won were a mandate for running the state not a mandate to do factional arithmetic, remains to be seen.

Kerala is awaiting a chief minister. It's been long enough in the waiting.